TrueCar predicts March sales to be highest since August 2007
(March 27, 2012) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com today released its March sales and incentives forecast predicting the highest unit sales since August 2007. TrueCar says the Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 14.5 million.
The forecast shows the following:
• For March 2012, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,416,703 units, up 13.7 percent from March 2011 and up 23.3 percent from February 2012 (on an unadjusted basis)
• The March 2012 forecast translates into a SAAR of 14.5 million new car sales, up from 13.1 million in March 2011 and down from 15.1 million in February 2012
• Retail sales are up 14.3 percent compared to March 2011 and up 26.5 percent from February 2012
• Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 19.5 percent of total industry sales in March 2012
•The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,440 in March 2012, which represents a decrease of 1.5 percent from February 2012 and decrease of 1.7 percent from March 2011
• Used car sales are estimated to be 2,736,250, up 9.5 percent from March 2011 and up 28.7 percent from February 2012. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:2 for March 2012
"We are looking at a record breaking month for many manufacturers in March with Hyundai, Nissan and Volkswagen expected to have their highest unit sales ever in the U.S.," said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Market Intelligence for TrueCar.com.
"We also forecast that Chrysler, Ford, GM, Honda and Toyota will have an extremely strong month, with some of the highest unit sales in years. Due to stronger than expected recovery, we've increased our sales forecast another 3.6 percent, from 14.0 million unit sales to 14.5 million unit sales in 2012."
"Consumers who wanted a new vehicle, but were cautiously sitting on the sidelines, are entering the market and feeling more confident about buying," said Kristen Andersson, Senior Analyst at TrueCar.com. "Automakers have hit the sweet spot this month with lowered incentives and double digit sales increases, which signifies the underlying strength in consumer demand."
Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for March 2012
Manufacturer |
March 2012 Forecast |
% Change vs. February 2012 |
% Change vs. March 2011 |
Chrysler |
160,256 |
19.3% |
31.2% |
Ford |
215,182 |
20.5% |
1.4% |
GM |
249,887 |
19.4% |
20.9% |
Honda |
145,594 |
32.2% |
8.9% |
Hyundai/Kia |
126,351 |
31.4% |
19.1% |
Nissan |
129,188 |
21.0% |
6.6% |
Toyota |
195,298 |
22.5% |
10.8% |
Volkswagen |
49,225 |
25.9% |
33.1% |
Industry |
1,416,703 |
23.3% |
13.7% |
|
Market Share |
|||
Manufacturer |
March 2012 Forecast |
February 2012 |
March 2011 |
Chrysler |
11.3% |
11.7% |
9.8% |
Ford |
15.2% |
15.5% |
17.0% |
GM |
17.6% |
18.2% |
16.6% |
Honda |
10.3% |
9.6% |
10.7% |
Hyundai/Kia |
8.9% |
8.4% |
8.5% |
Nissan |
9.1% |
9.3% |
9.7% |
Toyota |
13.8% |
13.9% |
14.1% |
Volkswagen |
3.5% |
3.4% |
3.0% |
|
Incentive Spending |
||||
Manufacturer |
March 2012 Incentives |
% Change vs. February 2012 |
% Change vs. March 2011 |
Total Spending |
Chrysler |
$3,137 |
-1.8% |
5.6% |
$499,729,046 |
Ford |
$2,726 |
-3.8% |
-2.8% |
$586,669,519 |
GM |
$3,144 |
0.9% |
-5.1% |
$785,765,563 |
Honda |
$2,122 |
-0.2% |
-8.1% |
$308,945,849 |
Hyundai/Kia |
$882 |
4.8% |
-30.6% |
$111,379,756 |
Nissan |
$3,115 |
-3.7% |
28.0% |
$402,433,212 |
Toyota |
$1,704 |
5.2% |
-13.5% |
$332,828,376 |
Volkswagen |
$2,021 |
-2.7% |
4.5% |
$99,486,066 |
Industry |
$2,440 |
-1.5% |
-1.7% |
$3,456,880,192 |