October auto sales keep pace despite shutdown, says Edmunds
(October 25, 2013) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Edmunds.com forecasts that 1,229,860 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in October for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.5 million. The projected sales will be an 8.2 percent increase from September 2013, and a 12.7 percent increase from October 2012.
The overall sales projections suggest that the government shutdown earlier this month had minimal effect on auto sales. But, says Edmunds.com, a longer shutdown could have left an ugly mark on what has been otherwise a glowing year for the automotive industry.
"It looks like the government shutdown ended just in the nick of time," says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "The week-by-week data suggests that consumers started to get jittery by the middle of the month. But with the government back to work, most lost sales should be made up in the latter half of the month, and the industry's momentum will continue the pace it enjoyed before the disruption in Washington."
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER |
|||||
Sales Volume |
Oct-13 Forecast |
Oct-12 |
Sep-13 |
Change from Oct 2012* |
Change from Sep 2013* |
GM |
215,274 |
195,764 |
187,195 |
10.0% |
15.0% |
Ford |
193,988 |
167,947 |
184,452 |
15.5% |
5.2% |
Toyota |
178,828 |
155,242 |
164,457 |
15.2% |
8.7% |
Chrysler Group |
139,848 |
126,185 |
143,017 |
10.8% |
-2.2% |
Honda |
120,484 |
106,973 |
105,563 |
12.6% |
14.1% |
Hyundai/Kia |
95,786 |
92,723 |
93,105 |
3.3% |
2.9% |
Nissan |
94,492 |
79,685 |
86,868 |
18.6% |
8.8% |
VW/Audi |
46,798 |
46,019 |
44,985 |
1.7% |
4.0% |
Industry |
1,229,860 |
1,091,546 |
1,136,218 |
12.7% |
8.2% |
*NOTE: October 2013 had 27 selling days, October 2012 had 26 and September 2013 had 23. |
While most major automakers are expected to easily clear September's sales totals, Edmunds.com projects that Chrysler sales will fall 2.2 percent month to month. As a result, Edmunds.com expects that the company's market share will recede 1.2 percentage points in October, just one month after it hit its highest share in over five years.
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER |
|||||
Market Share |
Oct-13 Forecast |
Oct-12 |
Sep-13 |
Change from |
Change from |
GM |
17.5% |
17.9% |
16.5% |
-0.4% |
1.0% |
Ford |
15.8% |
15.4% |
16.2% |
0.4% |
-0.5% |
Toyota |
14.5% |
14.2% |
14.5% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
Chrysler Group |
11.4% |
11.6% |
12.6% |
-0.2% |
-1.2% |
Honda |
9.8% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
0.0% |
0.5% |
Hyundai/Kia |
7.8% |
8.5% |
8.2% |
-0.7% |
-0.4% |
Nissan |
7.7% |
7.3% |
7.6% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
VW/Audi |
3.8% |
4.2% |
4.0% |
-0.4% |
-0.2% |