(December 17, 2012) Toyota relinquished the title as the world's largest automaker in 2011 devastated by the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, but its fall appears to be short lived. Toyota is poised to take back the title for 2012, as Volkswagen fights General Motors for second place heading into the final weeks, according to a report by Bloomberg News.

The battle among the world's biggest carmakers comes as the industry is headed for a record year.

Global 2012 sales will top 80 million cars and trucks for the first time, as robust U.S. and Japanese purchases offset a European downturn. The fight for second between Volkswagen and GM remains too close to call, with less than 1 percent difference between their sales.

All three companies have benefited from the strength of the U.S. light-vehicle market, which is heading for a third straight year of gains following the 2009 collapse and industry bailout. U.S. sales are projected to increase again next year, which would match the longest string since the end of World War II.

"Because the U.S. is so large, when we have a double-digit growth it's going to propel the rest of the world," said Rebecca Lindland, an industry analyst with IHS Automotive. "The gains can mask a myriad of sins elsewhere, because many of the other economies aren't exactly setting the world on fire."

The industry is headed for a more contentious battle in 2013, with LMC forecasting Volkswagen will add 600,000 units of production capacity next year, as much as GM and Toyota combined, and a projected rebound in China that favors the German carmaker's prospects. Volkswagen has said it will be the global sales leader by 2018.

"We have a three-horse race for the rest of our forecast through 2019, with everyone kind of bouncing around and changing positions," said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC in Troy, Mich. "It's very tight."

The race is so tight that analysts will disagree on the outcome based on how they count sales. For example, some analysts exclude autos sold by GM's partners in China and by Toyota's two affiliates, Hino and Daihatsu, Schuster said.

Based on the methods the automakers use to count their own sales, Toyota leads through the first three quarters, with 7.4 million units, compared with 6.95 million at GM, and 6.9 million at Volkswagen, including Porsche AG.

Sources: Bloomberg News, Automotive News