(April 26, 2017) IRVINE, Calif. — New-vehicle sales are expected to decrease 3 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.45 million units in April, resulting in an estimated 17.1 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book kbb.com.

"After a weaker-than-expected March, it's becoming more likely that 2017 will be the first down year for the industry since 2009," said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book.

"Kelley Blue Book expects April to continue this downward trend, however the SAAR should bounce back to approximately 17.1 million as a result of one less selling day. Beyond April, we will continue to closely monitor still high levels of inventory and elevated incentive spending by manufacturers, both of which are signs of overproduction following last year's sales peak."

After a record year of sales in 2016 and seven consecutive year-over-year sales increases, Kelley Blue Book's forecast for 2017 calls for sales in the range of 16.8 million to 17.3 million units, which represents a 1 to 4 percent decrease from last year.

In April, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,445,000 units, down 3 percent compared to April 2016 and down 7 percent from March 2017.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for April is estimated to be 17.1 million, down from 17.3 million in April 2016 and up from 16.5 million in March 2017.

Retail sales are expected to account for 79.2 percent of volume in April, slightly up from 79.0 percent in April 2016.



While most manufacturers will likely report declines in April, Subaru is poised to set another monthly record. The recently redesigned Impreza is leading the way for the automaker, at a time when most cars are struggling in the market. To help achieve this growth, Subaru is boosting its incentive spending, but the manufacturer still maintains the lowest incentive levels in the industry.

Fiat Chrysler could see one of the greatest sales declines of all major manufacturers at a projected volume loss of 6 percent. The Jeep brand, now the highest volume brand for FCA, has faltered as of late and needs a solid launch for the new Compass, which recently hit dealerships. April looks to be a down month for Jeep and FCA's overall SUV lineup, even as SUV sales are generally faring well across the industry.

Sport utilities continue to dominate sales growth in the industry, and this month, analysts expect the mid-size SUV segment to see the highest growth at an estimated 8 percent increase. Mid-size SUVs appear to have the largest impact in swaying consumers from buying mid-size cars and minivans, both of which are down 20 percent this year.

"Mid-size cars continue to endure another poor month, and Kelley Blue Book anticipates the segment's market share will fall nearly two percentage points," said Fleming. "Just two of the twelve models in the segment — the Passat and the Mazda6 — have seen positive growth so far this year. Incentive spending for mid-size cars still remains high, despite the contraction in volume, which suggests further weakness may still lie ahead."