(August 26, 2015) IRVINE, Calif. — New-vehicle sales are expected to decline 4 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.52 million units in August, resulting in an estimated 17.2 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book. 

Industry sales are expected to decline in comparison to this time last year because auto sales from Labor Day weekend in 2014 were included in last year's August results.  This year, the Labor Day weekend sales days will be included in the September results, so the shift in the timing of Labor Day this year impacts the year-over-year results.

"While the outlook for August remains bright, we must keep an eye on the financial markets which have declined precipitously in the last few weeks on uncertainty in international markets, namely China," said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book. 

"We remain confident that sales in August will remain robust; however, should the U.S. financial markets continue to falter, we could see demand for new cars soften in the short to medium term.  It should be noted that the unemployment rate in the U.S. remains below 6 percent, while the auto finance environment remains as attractive as ever, so we don't necessarily expect to see the sales pace deviate from its current 17 million-plus SAAR trajectory for 2015 unless the stock market continues its downward trajectory in the weeks and months to come."

Key highlights for estimated August sales forecast:

    • New light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to reach 1,520,000 units, down 4 percent from August 2014 and up 0.8 percent from July.

    • The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for August is estimated to be 17.2 million, even with August 2014 and down from 17.5 million in July.

    • Retail sales are expected to account for 88.8 percent of volume in August, up from 88.2 percent in August 2014.

"This could be the end of Fiat Chrysler Automobile's streak of consecutive monthly sales increases, which began in March 2010, as Kelley Blue Book projects a 3.2 percent decline in volume," said Gutierrez.  "However, the automaker is still having an incredible year of growth with the highest year-to-date sales increase of all major manufacturers."

Due to the exclusion of Labor Day in this month's sales results, Kelley Blue Book expects most automakers to report sales decline in August.  One manufacturer that could buck this trend is Ford, with its F-150 growing both in sales and available inventory, following a slow launch earlier this year.  Ford F-Series sales, the best-selling nameplate in the country, are down 1.3 percent through July.