'Clunkers' distorts August sales comparisons

(September 1, 2010) Most automakers today reported sharply lower August sales compared to August 2009 when the "Cash for Clunkers" program lifted consumer demand above normal levels.

Toyota was especially hard hit seeing its August sales plunge 34 percent. It was the second consecutive month its U.S. sales have dropped. Toyota is off 1 percent for the year while the industry as a whole is up 8 percent.

General Motors posted a 25 percent decline from August to August, Ford was down 14 percent, Honda was off 33 percent, Nissan was down 27 percent and Hyundai off 15 percent.
Subaru posted its first year-to-year loss since May 2009, slipping 23 percent.

“We've known that August comparisons would be irrelevant due to the ‘Cash for Clunkers' program last year,” John Mendel, executive vice president of sales for American Honda, said in a statement. “The good news is that we continue to see increasing demand for Honda products as customers seek even greater value.”

Chrysler was one of the bright spots, actually gaining 7 percent from year to year. Industry analysts said Chrysler did not benefit as much from the "clunkers" program relying more on fleet sales.
Because of the difficult comparison to a year ago, automakers and analysts are comparing August sales to July demand to measure the industry's health amid weak economic growth and the nation's high jobless rate.

GM's August sales were down 7.3 percent when compared with July 2010. Ford's August sales were off 7.6 percent from the previous month. Toyota's sales declined 12 percent in August versus July.

“The car market and the overall economy are pretty weak,” said Joe Phillippi, principal of consulting firm AutoTrends in Short Hills, N.J. “Showroom traffic is down. We still have issues on the margin with some people not being able to get credit and people are nervous.”

Industry-wide deliveries last month may come in at a seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 11.6 million vehicles, based on the average of eight analysts' estimates compiled by Bloomberg News. That would be the second highest sales rate of the year, below May's 11.8 million rate and March's 11.7 million.

Yet J.D. Power and Associates said late yesterday that the pace of sales to individual customers “slowed considerably” in the last week of August. It pegged the August SAAR at 11.4 million, basing its projections on data from nearly 9,000 U.S. franchisees.

For the year, Ford is up 17 percent, General Motors 6 percent, Chrysler 10 percent, Hyundai 14 percent, Honda 1 percent, Nissan 14 percent, Volkswagen 22 percent.