(June 27, 2014) WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif — The seasonally adjusted annualized selling rate (SAAR) for new light-vehicle retail sales in June will result in the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year growth, according to a monthly sales forecast developed jointly by J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.

The retail SAAR in June is expected to be 13.3 million units, up slightly from 13.2 million in June 2013, and the second-highest monthly SAAR of 2014, trailing only May’s SAAR of 14.1 million.

Retail light-vehicle sales in June 2014 are projected to reach 1.1 million units, 6 percent higher than in June 2013 on a selling-day adjusted basis. Retail transactions are the most accurate measure of true underlying consumer demand for new vehicles.

It's important to recognize that June sales are being heavily influenced by a quirk of the industry sales calendar," said John Humphrey, senior vice president of the global automotive practice at J.D. Power.



The auto industry reports sales on a sales-month basis rather than a calendar-month basis. The June 2014 sales month includes just 24 selling days, compared with 26 selling days in June 2013. Humphrey noted that due to this difference in the sales reporting calendar in 2014, it makes sense to evaluate May and June sales in combination.

"When combined, May and June retail sales are expected to be up 7.2 percent, compared with May and June 2013, which underscores the continued positive trajectory in growth and overall health of the industry," said Humphrey.

Total light-vehicle sales in June 2014 are expected to approach 1.4 million units, a 5 percent increase from June 2013. The pace of fleet volume growth continues to be lower than retail, with a 1 percent increase year over year, accounting for 19 percent of total sales in June.

With the combination of May’s strong performance and June holding above the year-to-date selling pace of 15.9 million units, LMC Automotive is raising its 2014 light-vehicle retail sales forecast to 13.4 million units from 13.3 million and its total light-vehicle forecast to 16.2 million units from 16.1 million.

Supporting volume above 16 million units is a 55 percent increase in new-model activity in 2014 from 2013. Virtually every vehicle segment has fresh models in dealer showrooms, with activity in the small premium car and SUV segments accounting for more than 10 percent of all new models.