(February 26, 2024) Total new-vehicle sales for February, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,214,600 units, a 1.4% increase from February 2023, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData. February 2024 has 25 selling days, one more than February 2023. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 5.6% from a year ago.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.4 million units, up 0.4 million units from February 2023.

New-vehicle retail sales for February are expected to increase when compared with February 2023. Retail sales of new vehicles this month are expected to reach 981,300 units, a 3.8% increase from February 2024. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 8.1% from 2023.

"This month, the new-vehicle market is poised for volume growth with total sales expected to rise a modest 1.4% and retail sales growing 3.8%, selling day adjusted. This volume growth is being driven by higher inventory levels, higher manufacturer incentives and lower retailer profit margins, all of which translate into declining average transaction prices," said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power.

"Despite the landscape shifting towards increased volume with diminished per-unit profits, retail customers will still spend more on new vehicles this month than in any other February on record.”

Retail inventory levels are expected to finish around 1.7 million units, a 3.6% increase from January 2024 and a 44.7% increase from February 2023. Fleet mix is projected at 19.2%, down 1.9 percentage points from February 2023.

“The average new-vehicle retail transaction price is declining due to rising manufacturer incentives, falling retailer profit margins and increased availability of lower-priced vehicles. Transaction prices in February are trending towards $44,045, down $1,919 or 4.2% — from February 2023," King said. "However, despite the significant decline in average transaction prices, higher sales volumes mean consumers are on track to spend nearly $40.8 billion on new vehicles this month—the highest on record for the month of February, and 4.1% higher than February 2023.

“Total retailer profit per unit—which includes vehicles gross plus finance and insurance income — is expected to be $2,574, down 31.3% from February 2023. Rising inventory is the primary factor behind the profit decline and fewer vehicles are selling above the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP). Thus far in February, only 17.4% of new vehicles have been sold above MSRP, which is down from 31.7% in February 2023.”

Total aggregate retailer profit from new-vehicle sales for this month is projected to be $2.4 billion, down 25.7% from February 2023.

While retailers continue to pre-sell vehicles, rising inventory is enabling more shoppers to buy directly off dealer lots. In February, it's projected that 32.7% of vehicles will sell within 10 days of arriving at the dealership, down from the peak of 58% in March 2022. The average time a new vehicle remains in the dealer's possession before sale is expected to be 43 days in February, marking a 14-day increase from a year ago.