AAA predicts gas prices will drop under $2 in coming months

(September 5, 2015) Most U.S. drivers will pay the lowest gas prices since 2004 for the busy Labor Day weekend, according to AAA. This weekend's national average price of gas is $2.44 per gallon, which is 99 cents per gallon less than a year ago. U.S. consumers should save more than $1 billion on gasoline over the holiday weekend compared to 2014, with many drivers saving about $15-$25 on every trip to the gas station.
   
“Americans should find good deals on gas prices in most parts of the country heading into the busy Labor Day weekend,” said Avery Ash, AAA spokesman. “It is unbelievable that drivers are ending their summer vacations with the lowest gas prices for this time of year in more than a decade.”

“Gas prices in many parts of the country could fall below $2 per gallon by Christmas if the cost of crude oil remains low,” continued Ash. “There is good reason to believe that cheaper oil costs, a seasonal decline in driving and the switchover to less costly winter-blend gasoline will continue to push down prices through the end of the year.”
   
Gas prices generally drop after Labor Day, which is considered the end of the summer driving season. People typically drive less in the autumn and winter, which is when gas prices usually reach a low for the year.
   
Average U.S. gas prices have dropped about 37 cents per gallon since hitting a 2015 peak price of $2.80 on June 15. Average gas prices have dropped due to lower crude oil costs and abundant petroleum supplies.
   
Gas prices averaged $2.60 per gallon in August, which was the lowest average for the month since 2005. The average price in August was about 15 cents per gallon less than in July.
   
But prices remain relatively high compared to the cost of crude oil. WTI oil prices closed at $46.25 per barrel on Wednesday, which was similar to the cost of oil in January. Nevertheless, average gas prices are about 41 cents per gallon more expensive than the lowest daily average in January.

This is due to high demand and ongoing refinery problems, along with the higher cost to produce summer-blend gasoline that is required in many areas. When the market is running smoothly, gas prices generally drop about 2.4 cents per gallon for every $1 per barrel change in the cost of crude oil.

A number of major refineries have experienced production problems this year, which has led to significantly higher regional prices when combined with high fuel demand. In August, BP’s refinery in Whiting, Ind. was forced to shut its largest crude distillation unit temporarily. Gas prices across the Midwest jumped in response with averages in some Great Lakes states up more than 50 cents per gallon in less than a week. BP was able to repair the facility faster than expected, and prices have returned nearly all of those gains, though at a much slower pace than the initial price spike.
   
Summer is the busiest time of the year for driving and millions of Americans are taking advantage of lower gas prices to travel more this year. New estimates by the Federal Highway Administration showed that U.S. driving topped 1.54 trillion miles in the first half of 2015, which was an all-time high. Increased driving results in higher fuel demand, which can lead to higher gas prices.
   
Gas prices remain relatively high on the West Coast, in part because ExxonMobil’s refinery in Torrance, Calif., is still not operating at normal levels. The refinery experienced an explosion in the spring that sent gas prices in parts of California above $4 per gallon. Gas prices have since declined as supplies enter the market form other areas, yet gas prices in California and neighboring states remain near or above $3 per gallon. The refinery reportedly will ramp up in production in October as it completes repairs.