(September 29, 2022) New-vehicle retail sales for September are expected to increase when compared with September 2021, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. Retail sales of new vehicles this month are expected to reach 958,948 units, a 5.4% increase compared with September 2021. September 2022 has the same number of selling days compared with September 2021.

New-vehicle retail sales for Q3 2022 are projected to reach 2,900,300 units, a 4.2% decrease from Q3 2021 when adjusted for selling days. New-vehicle retail sales for year-to-date Q3 2022 are projected to reach 8,710,600 units, a 14.9% decrease from year-to-date Q3 2021 when adjusted for selling days.

Total new-vehicle sales for September 2022, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,120,279 units, an 11.8% increase from September 2021. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 13.6 million units, up 1.5 million units from 2021.

New-vehicle total sales for Q3 2022 are projected to reach 3,374,500 units, a 0.2% increase from Q3 2021.  New-vehicle total sales for year-to-date Q3 2022 are projected to reach 10,156,000 units, a 13.3% decrease from year-to-date Q3 2021.


“Traditionally, September is a high-volume sales month as manufacturers implement promotions for Labor Day to clear out old model-year vehicles and start sales of the new model-year products. This September, while holiday promotions were nearly nonexistent, modest improvements in vehicle production allowed manufacturers to tap pent-up consumer demand," said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power.

"The result is a retail sales pace that shows a modest increase from a year ago but still falls below its potential due to tight vehicle availability. Although rising interest rates are putting pressure on affordability, transaction prices still rose and consumers spent more money on new vehicles this month than any previous September on record.



“A deeper dive into September results shows that while demand continues to exceed supply, several key financial results are either showing slower growth or have plateaued. Transaction prices rose 6% year over year, an impressive increase, but less than the 10% growth observed earlier this year. Dealer profits have declined modestly from their peak — down just more than $300 from three months ago — while trade-in equity has stabilized at just under $10,000 for the past two months.

"Overall, this points to some deterioration in per unit pricing and profitability in the coming quarters, as rising interest rates and economic conditions affect demand, coupled with a likely gradual improvement in vehicle availability. That said, future improvements in vehicle availability will increase future sales volumes, offsetting deterioration in per unit pricing and profit.”

September is on track to be the 16th consecutive month that retail inventory closes below one million units. Dealerships are continuing to pre-sell vehicles in their delivery pipeline. This month, 53% of vehicles will be sold within 10 days of arriving at a dealership, while the average number of days a new vehicle is in a dealer’s possession before being sold is on pace to be 20 days — down from 23 days a year ago.

It should be noted that September 2021 was the second month where inventory shortages had a significant influence on new-vehicle sales. Hence, while sales this month will increase compared to prior year levels, the annualized sales rate remains well below historical norms.

For September, new-vehicle prices remain at record levels, with the average transaction price expected to reach $45,622 — a record for September, a 6.3% increase from a year ago and the fourth highest of any month on record. The increase in sales volume, coupled with the near record level transaction prices, is resulting in consumers being on track to spend nearly $43.7 billion on new vehicles this month — the highest level ever for the month of September and a 12% increase from September 2021.