TrueCar: 2014 new vehicle January sales expected to be up 0.9 percent

(January 30, 2014) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar today released its January 2014 sales and incentives forecast that predicts seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 15.6 million vehicles.

It shows the following:

    • For January 2014, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) are expected to be 1,050,000 units, up 0.9 percent from January 2013.

    • The January 2014 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 15.6 million new vehicle sales, up 2.7 percent over January 2013.

    • Share of retail sales are up 3.5 percent compared to January 2013 and down 0.8 percent from December 2013.

    • Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 17.9 percent of total industry sales in January 2014.

    • The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,452 in January 2014, a decrease of 3.1 percent from January 2013 and a decrease of 10.4 percent from December 2013.

    • Used car sales are estimated to be 4,007,000. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:2.8 for January 2014.

“January has been moving along at a steady pace,” said Larry Dominique, president of ALG and executive vice president of TrueCar. “Sales are up slightly over last January, which is a positive start to the year."

“Incentive spend is down short-term, with Chrysler and GM having reduced incentives,” said Dominique. “That said, incentives and fleet will quickly become attractive levers to pull if OEMs realize they’ve overreached on their sales goals.” 

TrueCar bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts and CPI).  TrueCar does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.

Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for January 2014: