(July 21, 2011) WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif. (PRNewswire) — Month-to-date new-vehicle retail sales for July are stronger than the past two months, but remain below the recovery pace set earlier this year, according to J.D. Power and Associates, which gathers real-time transaction data from more than 8,900 retail franchisees throughout the United States.

July new-vehicle retail sales are projected to come in at 913,900 units, which represents a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 9.8 million units. The retail selling rate is expected to improve from June, but continues to be under pressure from many variables, including notably low but improving inventory levels and flat incentive levels compared with June.

Retail transactions are the most accurate measurement of true underlying consumer demand for new vehicles.

"While July's selling rate is slated to finish higher than June, consumers continue to face obstacles in their willingness and ability to purchase a new vehicle," said Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates. "The ongoing debate regarding the debt ceiling and stagnant economy are creating added pressure on top of a generally weaker vehicle sales environment."

Total light-vehicle sales in July are expected to come in at 1,087,600 units, which is 8 percent higher than in July 2010. Fleet deliveries are typically low in July and are expected to represent 16 percent of total sales at 174,000 units for the month.

Sales Outlook

Retail light-vehicle sales in the second half of 2011 are expected to outperform the first half of the year, with the selling rate averaging 10.7 million units, up from 10.3 million during the first half of 2011. Including fleet sales, the total light-vehicle selling rate is also expected to be stronger during the second half of 2011 at 13.2 million units, up from 12.5 million during the first half of the year. J.D. Power's 2011 retail light-vehicle forecast remains at 10.5 million units and total light-vehicle sales remains at 12.9 million units.

"While the second half of 2011 is expected to regain momentum from earlier in the year, light-vehicle sales in July have yet to set the expected pace for a more robust recovery," said John Humphrey, senior vice president of automotive operations at J.D. Power and Associates. "However, with improvements in inventory and continued increases in credit availability, we remain optimistic that the recovery will get back on track as the industry manages through the current environment."

North American Production

North American production through the first half of 2011 has increased by 8 percent from the same period in 2010, with 6.4 million light vehicles produced (vs. 5.9 million units in the first half of 2010). Disruptions from the March 2011 Japanese earthquake/tsunami disaster are easing for the Japanese automakers, as production among these companies returns to normal levels in North America. In addition, the pace of their recovery will quicken through the second half of 2011. For 2011, North American light-vehicle production is forecasted at 12.9 million units, up 9 percent from 2010.

Vehicle inventory has increased to a 54 days' supply at the beginning of July, up from a 49-day level in June. Car inventory started the month at a 43 days' supply, while trucks were at 67 days' supply. Several models in the compact segments, such as the Toyota Prius, Ford Focus and Honda Civic, have inventory levels of fewer than 25 days and may experience limited sales due to the low availability.

Production of the 2012 model year vehicles continues to ramp up. Through mid-July, nearly 12 percent of retail market sales were of 2012 model-year vehicles. Hyundai (42 percent of July month-to-date retail sales) and Ford (16 percent) have the highest mix of new model-year vehicles thus far.