(March 28, 2021) Total new-vehicle sales for March, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,330,700 units, a 6.2% increase from March 2022, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. March 2023 has the same number of selling days as March 2022.

New-vehicle total sales for Q1 2023 are projected to reach 3,526,700 units, a 7.3% increase from Q1 2022 when adjusted for selling days.

New-vehicle retail sales for March 2023 are expected to increase when compared with March 2022. Retail sales of new vehicles this month are expected to reach 1,090,500 units, a 1.9 increase from March 2022.

New-vehicle retail sales for Q1 2023 are projected to reach 2,858,500 units, a 0.2% increase from Q1 2022 when adjusted for selling days.


“March is shaping up to be yet another positive month for the industry. With retail sales forecasted to be up nearly 2% — along with average transaction prices tracking up 3.5% —  consumers are on pace to spend nearly $50 billion this month, an increase of 5.5% from what they spent on new vehicles a year ago, said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power.

“Retail demand for vehicles remains strong, due primarily to considerable pent-up demand. The availability of new vehicles in inventory at retailers is improving, resulting in a softening of dealer margins and increased manufacturer incentive spending. But, overall, the industry remains supply constrained, and profitability is well above historical norms.

“This dynamic of high transaction prices despite increased production levels is being assisted by an increased manufacturer focus on sales to fleet customers. Rather than allocate incremental production to retailers, manufacturers are selling more vehicles to fleet buyers. Sales to fleet buyers are expected to increase 31% from a year ago.”

New-vehicle transaction prices continue to rise, with the average price reaching a March record of $45,818. This is a 3.5% increase from a year ago.

The record transaction prices means that consumers are on track to spend nearly $50 billion on new vehicles this month — the second-highest for the month of March and an increase of 5.5% from March 2022. For the first quarter of 2023, consumers spent more than $132 billion on new vehicles, the highest on record for any quarter and 4.4% higher than Q1 2022.