October auto sales keep pace despite shutdown, says Edmunds

(October 25, 2013) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Edmunds.com forecasts that 1,229,860 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in October for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.5 million. The projected sales will be an 8.2 percent increase from September 2013, and a 12.7 percent increase from October 2012.

The overall sales projections suggest that the government shutdown earlier this month had minimal effect on auto sales. But, says Edmunds.com, a longer shutdown could have left an ugly mark on what has been otherwise a glowing year for the automotive industry.

"It looks like the government shutdown ended just in the nick of time," says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "The week-by-week data suggests that consumers started to get jittery by the middle of the month. But with the government back to work, most lost sales should be made up in the latter half of the month, and the industry's momentum will continue the pace it enjoyed before the disruption in Washington."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales Volume

Oct-13 Forecast

Oct-12

Sep-13

Change from

Oct 2012*

Change from

Sep 2013*

GM

215,274

195,764

187,195

10.0%

15.0%

Ford

193,988

167,947

184,452

15.5%

5.2%

Toyota

178,828

155,242

164,457

15.2%

8.7%

Chrysler Group

139,848

126,185

143,017

10.8%

-2.2%

Honda

120,484

106,973

105,563

12.6%

14.1%

Hyundai/Kia

95,786

92,723

93,105

3.3%

2.9%

Nissan

94,492

79,685

86,868

18.6%

8.8%

VW/Audi

46,798

46,019

44,985

1.7%

4.0%

Industry

1,229,860

1,091,546

1,136,218

12.7%

8.2%

*NOTE: October 2013 had 27 selling days, October 2012 had 26 and September 2013 had 23.

While most major automakers are expected to easily clear September's sales totals, Edmunds.com projects that Chrysler sales will fall 2.2 percent month to month. As a result, Edmunds.com expects that the company's market share will recede 1.2 percentage points in October, just one month after it hit its highest share in over five years.

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market Share

Oct-13 Forecast

Oct-12

Sep-13

Change from
October 2012
(Percentage pts.)

Change from
September 2013
(Percentage pts.)

GM

17.5%

17.9%

16.5%

-0.4%

1.0%

Ford

15.8%

15.4%

16.2%

0.4%

-0.5%

Toyota

14.5%

14.2%

14.5%

0.3%

0.1%

Chrysler Group

11.4%

11.6%

12.6%

-0.2%

-1.2%

Honda

9.8%

9.8%

9.3%

0.0%

0.5%

Hyundai/Kia

7.8%

8.5%

8.2%

-0.7%

-0.4%

Nissan

7.7%

7.3%

7.6%

0.4%

0.0%

VW/Audi

3.8%

4.2%

4.0%

-0.4%

-0.2%