(June 28, 2016) IRVINE, Calif. — New-vehicle sales are expected to increase 5 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.55 million units in June, resulting in an estimated 17.1 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book kbb.com.  The 1.55 million units would bring the first half of the year's total to 8.66 million, the highest on record and up 2 percent from last year.

"June 2016 is expected to bring mostly positive numbers for the new-vehicle sales and the industry remains on pace for another top performing year," said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book.  "As we head into summer, sales should stabilize just slightly ahead of last year's pace.  This month's volume will mark the highest June since 2005, when 1.67 million units were sold during a wave of discounts."

Key highlights for estimated June 2016 sales forecast:

    • In June 2016, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,530,000 units, up 5 percent from June 2015 and up 1 percent from May 2016.

    • The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for June 2016 is estimated to be 17.1 million, up from 17.0 million in June 2015 and down from 17.4 million in May 2016.

    • Retail sales are expected to account for 78.6 percent of volume in June 2016, down from 79.5 percent in June 2015.

Kelley Blue Book expects sales increases from most manufacturers in June; however, Subaru could report one of the largest percentage gains.

"Subaru has been the fastest-selling brand this year by far, with models averaging just 27 days to turn, but sales have been hampered by low inventories," said Fleming.  "While still tight, inventory is much better than last year and should help Subaru achieve another record month."

American Honda also should continue its strong run this month, with expected growth of 10 percent.  Honda's top two models, the Civic and Accord, will offer the most growth for the automaker, which is remarkable since consumer preference is shifting away from these segments.

Compact SUVs will remain the top segment in June 2016 and will be boosted by a refreshed Ford Escape and redesigned Kia Sportage.  Models in this segment remain in high demand, averaging 61 days to turn this year, while compact and mid-size cars are averaging nearly 80 days.

Mid-size cars will drop nearly a point of share year-over-year, as the volume should remain flat.  The Honda Accord and redesigned Chevrolet Malibu are two bright spots among this segment, but most models will decline from this time last year.