(October 26, 2012) WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif. — New-vehicle retail sales in October continue the robust pace from September, with another month of strong double-digit year-over-year growth, according to a monthly sales forecast developed by J.D. Power and Associates' Power Information Network (PIN) and LMC Automotive.

October new-vehicle retail sales are projected to come in at 943,200 units — a 13 percent increase in volume, compared with October 2011 — which represent a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 12.0 million units. The forecasted selling rate in October is the second consecutive month above 12 million units, the first time that has occurred since April and May 2008. Retail transactions are the most accurate measurement of true underlying consumer demand for new vehicles.

"The October retail sales pace is solidifying an accelerating recovery in the automotive market," said Deirdre Borrego, vice president and general manager of U.S. Automotive Operations at J.D. Power and Associates.

"Each month, we're seeing stronger signs of a healthy market, not only in terms of sales volumes, but also in dealer inventories, transaction prices and incentive levels." 

Total light-vehicle sales in October are projected to increase by 11 percent from October 2011, with volume at 1,134,800 units. Fleet sales in October are expected to represent 17 percent of total sales, which is slightly below the 5-year average of 19 percent for October and indicative of automakers continuing to manage production levels.

LMC Automotive is increasing its outlook for total light-vehicle sales in the United States to 14.4 million units in 2012 from its previous forecast of 14.3 million units. The retail sales forecast is also revised upward to 11.7 million units from 11.6 million units. The forecast for 2013 remains 15 million units for total light-vehicles and 12.3 million for retail sales.

"It is becoming clear that the U.S. automotive market is finally approaching a stage of a more natural level of demand, which has been accelerated by increasing consumer confidence and a need  to replace aging vehicles," said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive.

"This stability at a higher level is taking the edge off the risk factors for the remainder of 2012 and into 2013, as the U.S. economy wrestles with the European crisis. There is further upside potential for 2013 if the level of demand continues to outpace the risk factors post-election."

J.D. Power and LMC Automotive U.S. Sales and SAAR Comparisons