(June 27, 2011) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — An estimated 1,093,000 new car sales (including fleet sales) are expected this month, accounting for an 11.2 percent increase over June 2010 and a three percent increase over last month, according to Edmunds.com.

The estimated sales volume translates to a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 11.9 million in June, according to Edmunds.com analysts. Even with SAAR coming in below 12 million for the second month in a row, Edmunds.com continues to project an annual SAAR of 12.9 light vehicle sales overall in 2011.

"As we anticipated, production issues and price increases have led to sluggish sales over the last couple of months and have made it more likely for consumers to delay their new car purchases through the early part of the summer," said Edmunds.com Chief Economist Lacey Plache. "But as prices and inventory return closer to normal levels by September, many of those lost sales can be made up by the end of this year when consumers return to the market."

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Japanese carmakers continue to be stung by inventory shortages in the wake of the earthquake and tsunamis back in March. Edmunds.com projects that Honda's sales will fall another 2.8 percent in June, following dramatic decreases reported last month.

Toyota, meanwhile, will see a nearly 11 percent uptick in sales this month following a poor showing in May. But the company will still be down 14.5 percent this month compared to June 2010, with a 3.3 percent loss in market share over the same period.

"Honda and Toyota production has increased, but the new vehicles are slow to hit dealer lots," said Jessica Caldwell, director of pricing and industry analysis at Edmunds.com. "Fortunately for them, Honda and Toyota customers are loyal to their brands and they've likely deferred their new car purchases until inventory is available."

Nissan continues to be the least affected among the Japanese Three. Edmunds.com projects the company's June sales will increase 5.6% over May, and almost 25 percent over June 2010.

Edmunds.com estimates that the Big 3 (GM, Ford and Chrysler) will account for 49.4 percent of all auto sales in June, down 0.4 percentage points from last month, but up 2.3 points over June 2010.

They're again paced by GM, whose projected 228,083 sales this month are expected to top May by 3.1 percent. Ford's sales will show slight growth compared to May (+1.9%), even as its May-to-June market share is expected to fall marginally (-0.2 percentage points).

After overtaking Toyota for third place in sales last month, Chrysler will fall back to fourth place in June, despite a 1.1 percent increase in overall sales. The manufacturer still has the most year-over-year momentum among the top six automakers, with an estimated 26.2 percent boost in sales over June 2010.