Edmunds: Retail market drives strongest July car sales since 2006
(July 28, 2013) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Edmunds.com forecasts that 1,328,397 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in July for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.8 million. The projected sales will be a 5.3 percent decrease from June 2013, but a 15.2 percent increase from July 2012.
Edmunds.com anticipates that this month will be the biggest July performance since 2006 when automakers sold 1,489,359 vehicles.
"Overall sales are undoubtedly strong, but what makes July truly impressive is that fleet sales are so low," says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "That means retail sales are stepping up as the driving force for the auto industry. When people jump back into the market, it's great news not just for the automotive sector, but for the entire U.S. economy.
Sales Volume | Jul-13 Forecast | Jul-12 | Jun-13 | Change from Jul 2012* | Change from Jun 2013* |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GM | 239,972 | 201,237 | 264,843 | 19.2% | -9.4% |
Toyota | 199,716 | 164,898 | 195,235 | 21.1% | 2.3% |
Ford | 193,914 | 173,482 | 234,917 | 11.8% | -17.5% |
Chrysler Group | 140,160 | 126,089 | 156,686 | 11.2% | -10.5% |
Honda | 134,429 | 116,944 | 136,915 | 15.0% | -1.8% |
Hyundai/Kia | 117,354 | 110,095 | 115,543 | 6.6% | 1.6% |
Nissan | 115,697 | 98,341 | 104,124 | 17.6% | 11.1% |
VW/Audi | 48,272 | 48,721 | 50,663 | -0.9% | -4.7% |
Industry | 1,328,397 | 1,153,092 | 1,402,274 | 15.2% | -5.3% |
*NOTE: July 2013 had 25 selling days, July 2012 had 24 and June 2013 had 26.
Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.6 million vehicles in July, with fleet transactions accounting for 14 percent of total sales, the lowest proportion for any month this year. An estimated 3.18 million used cars will be sold in July, for a SAAR of 36.2 million (compared to 3.07 million — or a SAAR of 37.1 million — used car sales in June).
In a bit of a surprise, Edmunds.com projects that Toyota will beat out Ford in total sales this month, the first time since March 2010. The Japanese automaker will claim 15.0 percent of U.S. auto sales in July, its highest share since January 2013. Ford's share, meanwhile, is expected to fall 2.2 percentage points from June, the biggest month-to-month decrease of any automaker. Its projected 14.6 percent share this month will be the company's lowest single-month share since August 2009 (14.3 percent).
Market Share | Jul-13 Forecast | Jul-12 | Jun-13 | Change from July 2012 | Change from June 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GM | 18.1% | 17.5% | 18.9% | 0.6% | -0.8% |
Toyota | 15.0% | 14.3% | 13.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% |
Ford | 14.6% | 15.0% | 16.8% | -0.4% | -2.2% |
Chrysler Group | 10.6% | 10.9% | 11.2% | -0.4% | -0.6% |
Honda | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
Hyundai/Kia | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.2% | -0.7% | 0.6% |
Nissan | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 0.2% | 1.3% |
VW/Audi | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | -0.6% | 0.0% |