Black Friday to set pace for potentially record-breaking November sales

(November 24, 2015) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Car shopping destination has issued its November 2015 new car sales forecast, which projects that 1,331,415 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in November for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 18.3 million.

Both the volume and SAAR are threatening to be the biggest on record for the month of November, eclipsing the 1,324,542 new cars sold in November 2001 for a SAAR of 17.7 million. The projected sales will be an 8.3 percent decrease from October 2015, but a 2.5 percent increase from November 2014.

"Not even a decade ago, November was a notoriously slow sales month, and it typically ranked as the third worst month for sales in the calendar year," says Director of Industry Analysis Jessica Caldwell. "But in recent years, car dealers have joined other retailers to embrace Black Friday as a big sales driver. Since 2010, November has delivered one of the three best SAARs in each year, and last year, Thanksgiving weekend accounted for twice as many sales as any other weekend in November. We expect to see both trends continue this year."

Despite this month's soaring sales forecast, Edmunds projects that Volkswagen will continue to struggle as a result of its ongoing "Dieselgate" crisis. Edmunds forecasts that VW/Audi sales in November will be down 14.4 percent year over year, with VW brand sales alone falling 26.9 percent over the same period. estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 15.4 million vehicles in November, with fleet transactions accounting for 16.1 percent of total sales. An estimated 2.77 million used cars will be sold in November, for a SAAR of 38.5 million (compared to 3.17 million — or a SAAR of 37.9 million — used car sales in October).