Ford's road ahead — Neither surprising nor unexpected

By Christopher A. Sawyer
The Virtual Driver

(March 19, 2018) The 2020 Bronco will be based on the Ranger, offered with two or four doors, have Jeep-like capability, and the option of hybrid power.The most important thing Ford announced at its March 15 press event is that it will have the “freshest” lineup of any full-line (car and light truck) automaker by 2020; reducing the average age of its vehicles in its showrooms from 5.7 to 3.3 years as it replaces three-quarters of its lineup and adds four new trucks and SUVs.


It is public acknowledgement of Ford’s slow new-vehicle product cadence, and a silent admission that the company did not adapt its bureaucracy to take full advantage of the One Ford strategy introduced under former CEO Alan Mullaly.

The One Ford plan sought to eliminate duplication by designing and developing each model for global sale. Instead of a North American and European Focus, for example, there would be one design whose amenities would be tailored for each region.

Created at a time when gasoline prices in the U.S. rose to $4 per gallon as oil peaked around $114 per barrel, it envisioned common drivetrains and safety equipment levels as the American driving experience drifted closer to Europe’s. Unfortunately as gas prices dropped and stabilized, and the economy recovered, consumers have moved smartly away from hybrids, small cars and sedans to performance vehicles light trucks, and SUVs. In addition, some mistakes were made along the way.

The C-Max people mover was — solely because it had a silhouette similar to that of the Prius — redirected from being a small family vehicle for young families, to becoming Ford’s halo hybrid. Available in regular or plug-in versions, it was touted as having the best hybrid fuel economy, until its EPA-ratings had to be downgraded — twice. And, to add insult to injury, this strategy also eliminated the popular hybrid model from the Escape lineup.


A small off-roader also was teased, and will be aimed at those wanting more capability from their compact crossovers.

There was no bigger mistake, however, than the decision not to import the Global Ranger mid-size pickup. Despite an extremely loyal owner network and a used vehicle market that has well cared for Rangers selling for silly prices, the company decided that the small pickup market was dead, and that the need to introduce a “7/8” scale pickup as CAFE backup for the F-150 ended when that pickup switched to an aluminum body. Ford knew that it would be difficult, if not impossible, to profitably build a Ranger that would have the durability and low price of the original, while meeting future fuel economy and safety requirements. And, from this perspective, that decision was correct.

However, it must be said that Ford’s insistence that former Ranger buyers would slide easily into the low end of the F-150 price ladder helped fuel the success of the Chevy Colorado and GMC Canyon; two small trucks that had the size, maneuverability, fuel economy, and capability buyers in this segment wanted and were willing to pay for. In short, GM saw a buyer Ford missed. Now Ford is playing catch up in a market it once dominated with a pickup that has had to be significantly updated in order to meet U.S. standards. The new Ranger goes on sale in the U.S. in mid-2019.

One big surprise surprise was the announcement that Ford’s new plan will have five flexible vehicle architecture paired with module “families” that include the power pack, electrical pack, and vehicle configurations. The architectures — body-on-frame, front-wheel drive unibody, rear-wheel drive unibody, commercial van unibody, and battery electric vehicle (BEV) — strongly suggest scalable architectures for each capable of spanning from the smallest to the largest vehicle in that segment. It also means the “D6” platform — a one-size fits all modular architecture meant to encompass all but the body-on-frame offerings — is dead. This is good news, and a recognition that the theoretical savings of the D6 layout would not come close to the actual savings of dedicated, drive-specific platforms.


Ford is pulling $7 billion out of its car portfolio to add more SUVs, and this has shifted Ford Performance's focus to this market. The Edge ST (foreground) is a given, while the 2020 Explorer ST (background) is a new addition. And one that, judging by the front dash-to-wheel diimensions, is based on a rear-drive platform.

The other news announced at the event was a combination of the already known, and a restructuring of vehicle packages. Designed, in part, to bolster the company’s share price by positioning Ford as a player in the safety/autonomy sweepstakes, it drew the approval of Goldman Sachs, the press conference added no more than a nickel to the share price by the time the market closed on Wall Street. While the news met with general approval, many recognized that it was not ground breaking.

On the safety front, Ford announced Co-Pilot 360, an amalgamation of current technologies to which is added standard emergency braking in order to create a driver assistance package whose capabilities will grow over time. In addition, all 2019 Ford vehicles will come standard with 4G LTE connectivity. In the short term, these changes begin to bring Ford up-to-date with some competitors, while placing it ahead of others. Yet, over the next two model years, these technologies will become the price of entry as driver-assist systems are factored into New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) ratings, and the connectivity image wars continue.

On the product front, Ford announced that tit is pulling $7 billion from the car side to create new SUVs. This will be used to enlarge its SUV lineup to eight models, including the all-electric performance SUV introduced at the Detroit show under the “Mach 1” name. Five of the seven remaining models will offer a hybrid powertrain, including the next-generation Escape and Explorer that are due next year. Those two nameplates alone account for 70% of Ford’s SUV sales, and have an outsized effect on Ford’s CAFE compliance.


The Mustang, F-150 and Expplorer will offer hybrid versions in the coming years, and be joined by a resurrected Escape Hybrid.

The shift toward SUVs will affect the offerings from Ford Performance as well. In addition to the already announced Edge ST, Ford will add an Explorer ST to the lineup. Dearborn says it will deliver 12 new Ford Performance models by 2020, though it did not say if this includes models like the Fiesta ST that won’t be sold here. Given that the new Bronco (available with two or four doors) will be built off the Ranger, it is highly likely Ford Performance will port the pieces from the Ranger Raptor to that vehicle. The new small off-roader announced, but not named, at the press briefing also will get the ST treatment.

As expected, the 2020 F-150 will be a new design, and feature a hybrid powertrain with mobile generator set. Ford will continue to chase high-content models, saying that high-end models like the Platinum, King Ranch, and Lariat have raised the average F-Series transaction price by $6,700 since 2014.

Enough, the company claims, to make F-Series revenues greater than the revenues of Coca-Cola, Facebook and Nike. (What percentage of F-Series revenues are due directly to sales of F-150, F-250, and F-350 models is unknown, as Ford does not break out revenues, or sales numbers, by model. Instead it includes everything from the lowliest F-150 to the heaviest duty F-750 and F59 chassis cab models.)

In addition to the F-150 Hybrid, Ford announced it will be adding hybrid variants to most of its product line. As we reported in early 2016, the Mustang will be one of the hybrid models, though the electrification technology will be added to the four-cylinder EcoBoost model in order to give it V8-like performance, but with even more low-end grunt. It is possible that the F-150 and Mustang will share a 48-volt starter-generator mounted between the engine and 10-speed automatic transmission. Despite claims by Ford that hybrids are ready for a “mainstream breakout” that will drive hybrid sales higher, in all but a few cases the forces behind this move toward electrification are tighter fuel economy and emission standards. Otherwise, most customers shy away from the technology, as can be seen by their slow sales and high rebates.

Ford’s BEV initiative sounds like it was pulled from Tesla’s early playbook. It plans to make charging an “effortless experience” at home or on the road, and will offer full-vehicle over-the-air (OTA) software updates to enhance vehicle capabilities and features. Which begs the question: Shouldn’t OTA technology also be offered to Ford’s non-BEV buyers as well?


Ford also teased the +700 hp, twin-turbo GT500, but was strangely quiet about the rest of its car portfolio. Though the latest Fiesta won't be coming to the States, it appears the Focus will be supplied from China, while the Fusion has, at best, an unclear future.

Ford says its electric vehicle manufacturing layout will be more efficient than for internal combustion vehicles, but that goes without saying. Cutting floor space and capital investment by 50% is a given as BEV’s will have modularized powertrains made up of components common across the electric vehicle lineup. Built on a skateboard-like punt, a BEV chassis will include front and rear subframes built up offsite by suppliers or in-plant, and bolted as a unit to the chassis.

Eleven billion dollars is being set aside for global BEV development, which will include the “Mach 1” and five other full-electric vehicles. Most of these are being developed for the Chinese market, where Beijing’s rancid air and government edicts are driving the shift to EVs. The other prime market is Europe, where in-city bans on diesel power and political warnings of full internal combustion vehicle bans have been threatened.

On the commercial vehicle side, the Transit will get 4G LTE connectivity for 2019, future E-Series, F-650, F-750, and F59 chassis cabs will receive a version of the Co-Pilot: 360 driver assistance system, and production of the E-Series cutaway and stripped chassis will continue into the 2020s. This is something of a surprise as, under One Ford, the Transit was to be Ford’s global commercial workhorse, and replace the E-Series by 2020.

Ford also spoke of improvements to its product development process, but not of the rumored 5,000 - 10,000 global reduction in development engineers. (Insiders say that, while a study initiated by Ford management claims the company has up to 10,000 more product development engineers than its rivals, the goal is to remove at least half that number by buyouts and attrition.) This announcement may come later.

The move to flexible vehicle architectures, it claims, will cut the time from design freeze to final production by 20%, and will help Ford achieve $4 billion in engineering efficiencies. Simplification will cut the number of potential order combinations per nameplate, while increased use of augmented and virtual reality will help reduce the time it takes to change a plant over to new model production by 25%, and add an average of $50 million to the bottom line.

These are comprehensive changes, but ones that already should have been part of a management-led continuous improvement process. Much of what was announced is neither surprising nor unexpected, and should get Ford to the point where its strongest competitors are today. The real work will come in moving beyond current goals and toward industry leadership.

The Virtual Driver