CNBC Squawk Box and the future of new-car sales

By Jim Meachen
MotorwayAmerica Editor

(October 2009) One of the problems facing cars companies as we approach the second decade of the 21st century is that they are building their products too well. Reliability is too high. Cars on a whole last longer without major repair. Change the oil at regular intervals, make sure fluids are maintained, and get the prescribed 10,000, 30,000 and 60,000 mile checkups. That's a recipe for 10 years of mostly trouble-free driving.

Cars are simply lasting too long. Wait a second, you say, isn't this a good thing? Of course it's a good thing, a great thing, from the consumer's point of view.

This was all brought to mind the other day while watching the early-morning Squawk Box on CNBC. On this particular day cars were on the minds of the hosts, guest hosts and the usual contributors from Wall Street and Chicago.

The high-powered guest host that day, who can obviously afford a garage full of high-end BMWs or Mercedes, said his newest car is 16 years old. He said he had a couple other cars, both older than 16 years.

The Chicago anchor admitted his main car was older than that.

Only Joe Kernen, one of Squawk's regular hosts, said he owned a new car, a Ford Flex.

Here is a group of men and women who can obviously afford late-model personal transportation, but who are satisfied with their older and apparently very reliable vehicles.

The days of wholesale change after three years — thinking way back — and the more recent trade-up-after-five-years thinking seems to be evolving into drive it until repairs become costlier than monthly payments or until the aggravation of having the car in the shop every month becomes more than you can stand.

It also stands to reason that if cars are generally better than they were a decade ago, a late-model used car will have more usable life than the late-model used car of the '80s. This makes the slightly used car more appealing, what with its lower purchase price. Somebody else has already sustained the off-the-lot new-car depreciation.

This new "automotive lifestyle" could lead one to believe that the intoxicating days of sales approaching 17-to-18 million a year in the U.S. won't be seen again for many years even in a growing, robust economy.

With a good, reliable fuel-efficient car in the garage, families will divert a new auto payment into other amenities of life, such as the latest high-definition big-screen television or a trip around the world.