(September 27, 2011) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com today said in its September 2011 sales and incentives forecast that light vehicle sales in the U.S. will push the Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) to 13.1 million, a big jump from the 12.1 million last month. The forecast shows the following:

    • For September 2011, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,054,599 units, up 10.1 percent from September 2010 and down 1.6 percent from August 2011 (on an unadjusted basis)
    • The September 2011 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 13.1 million new car sales, up from 12.1 million in August 2011 and up from 11.7 million in September 2010
    • Retail sales are up 10.7 percent compared to September 2010 and up 0.2 percent from August 2011
    • Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 20 percent of total industry sales in September 2011
    • The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,716 in September 2011, which represents an increase of 3.8 percent from August 2011 and down 0.9 percent from September 2010
    • Used car sales are estimated to be 3,226,841, up 4.5 percent from September 2010 and down 15.4 percent from August 2011.  The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:3 for September 2011

"New vehicle sales are doing particularly well, even with worries of a recession and another wild month for the financial markets in September," said Jesse Toprak, vice president of Industry Trends and Insights for TrueCar.com. 

"If the current trends hold, we expect 2011 total new light vehicle sales to be 12.75 million units — up 10 percent from 2010."

"Now that Honda and Toyota have increased levels of inventory, they are spending money at record levels to move cars," said Kristen Andersson, Automotive Analyst at TrueCar.com.

TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI).  TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.

Forecasts for the top seven manufacturers for September 2011: