Vehicle sales predicted to continue at healthy clip
(May 29, 2012) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Light vehicle sales are expected to continue at a healthy clip in May, reports Edmunds.com. Edmunds.com estimates that 1,391,163 new cars will be sold in May, for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 14.4 million. This would be a 17.5 percent increase from April 2012 and a 31.1 percent increase (unadjusted for number of selling days) from May 2011.
"Almost halfway through the year, the auto industry keeps chugging along toward a mid-14 million unit sales pace," said Jessica Caldwell, Sr. Analyst at Edmunds.com. "With continued pent-up demand and consumers gaining more and more access to credit, there's every reason to believe that sales can continue at this rate through the rest of the year."
| Sales Volume | May-12 Forecast | May-11 | Apr-12 | Change from May 2011* | Change from Apr 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 246,321 | 221,192 | 213,387 | 11.4% | 15.4% |
| Ford | 222,712 | 191,537 | 179,658 | 16.3% | 24.0% |
| Toyota | 205,391 | 108,387 | 178,044 | 89.5% | 15.4% |
| Chrysler | 164,083 | 115,363 | 141,165 | 42.2% | 16.2% |
| Honda | 135,908 | 90,773 | 122,012 | 49.7% | 11.4% |
| Nissan | 97,545 | 76,148 | 71,329 | 28.1% | 36.8% |
| Industry | 1,391,163 | 1,061,132 | 1,184,027 | 31.1% | 17.5% |
*NOTE: May 2012 had 26 selling days; May 2011 had 24
| Market Share | May-12 Forecast | May-11 | Apr-12 | Change from May 2011 | Change from Apr 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 17.7% | 20.8% | 18.0% | -3.1% | -0.3% |
| Ford | 16.0% | 18.1% | 15.2% | -2.0% | 0.8% |
| Toyota | 14.8% | 10.2% | 15.0% | 4.5% | -0.3% |
| Chrysler | 11.8% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 0.9% | -0.1% |
| Honda | 9.8% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 1.2% | -0.5% |
| Nissan | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | -0.2% | 1.0% |
Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 11.6 million vehicles in May, with fleet transactions accounting for 19.3 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.23 million used cars will be sold in May, for a SAAR of 37.5m (compared to 3.49 million — or a SAAR of 37.6 million — used car sales in April).
Toyota stands out above the other top auto manufacturers this month, thanks to a projected 90 percent sales increase and a 4.5 percentage point market share increase year over year. The growth underscores the progress that Toyota has made since the March 2011 earthquake in Japan that temporarily damaged its production capabilities and severely weakened its U.S. market position last year. Honda's numbers also reflect its year-long battle to shake off the quake's aftereffects, with sales and market share projected to be up almost 50 percent and 1.2 percentage points, respectively, year over year.
The resurgence of Japanese automakers comes at the expense of U.S. manufacturers whose market shares are coming back to earth after gains in the months following the earthquake. General Motors and Ford are expected to see their year-over-year market shares fall 3.1 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively, this month. Chrysler, meanwhile, is still showcasing its resilience, with an expected market share gain of 0.9 percentage points. Its estimated 164,000 sales could be the automakers biggest single month since March 2008.
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