TrueCar: September sales to be up 11 percent

(September 26, 2012) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com today released its September 2012 sales and incentives forecast. The forecast shows the following:

    • For September 2012, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,163,000 units, up 10.5 percent from September 2011 and down 9.5 percent from August 2012 (on an unadjusted basis)

    • The September 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate ("SAAR") of 14.6 million new car sales, up from 13.1 million in September 2011 and up from 14.5 million in August 2012

    • Retail sales are up 7.9 percent compared to September 2011 and down 9.7 percent from August 2012

    • Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 19.1 percent of total industry sales in September 2012

    • The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,468 in September 2012, which represents an decrease of 6.7 percent from September 2011 and decrease of 1.2 percent from August 2012

    • Used car sales are estimated to be 3,415,790, up 5.8 percent from September 2011 and down 11.7 percent from August 2012.  The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:3 for September 2012

"The SAAR range so far this year has been one of the tightest in the recent history, ranging in-between 13.8 and 15.1 million," said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Market Intelligence at TrueCar.com.

"Even though the lack of big movements in car sales makes for less attractive headlines, the stable growth in sales is a positive for the industry. The stability allows for the right production adjustments and price optimization, resulting in improved profitability."

Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for September 2012:

Unit Sales

Manufacturer

September 2012 Forecast

% Change vs. August

 2012

% Change vs. September

 2011

Chrysler

137,612

-7.3%

8.1%

Ford

177,066

-10.0%

1.3%

GM

212,284

-11.7%

2.5%

Honda

113,439

-13.6%

26.7%

Hyundai/Kia

102,283

-8.0%

16.7%

Nissan

92,349

-6.3%

-0.7%

Toyota

161,201

-14.5%

32.7%

Volkswagen

48,304

-8.1%

31.4%

Industry

1,163,000

-9.5%

10.5%

 

Market Share

Manufacturer

September 2012 Forecast

August 2012

September 2011

Chrysler

11.8%

11.6%

12.1%

Ford

15.2%

15.3%

16.6%

GM

18.3%

18.7%

19.7%

Honda

9.8%

10.2%

8.5%

Hyundai/Kia

8.8%

8.7%

8.3%

Nissan

7.9%

7.7%

8.8%

Toyota

13.9%

14.7%

11.5%

Volkswagen

4.2%

4.1%

3.5%

 

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer

September

2012

Incentives

% Change vs. August 2012

% Change vs.

September 2011

Total Spending

Chrysler

$3,256

0.9%

-3.1%

$448,124,788

Ford

$2,622

-1.9%

-7.8%

$464,217,015

GM

$3,008

-2.8%

-6.7%

$638,537,566

Honda

$2,270

-6.2%

-2.9%

$257,495,876

Hyundai/Kia

$1,294

8.9%

6.8%

$132,378,472

Nissan

$2,777

-3.9%

1.1%

$256,449,772

Toyota

$1,930

1.2%

-13.7%

$311,188,913

Volkswagen

$2,462

-1.5%

29.2%

$118,914,104

Industry

$2,468

-1.2%

-6.7%

$2,870,414,401