TrueCar predicts March sales to be highest since August 2007

(March 27, 2012) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com today released its March sales and incentives forecast predicting the highest unit sales since August 2007. TrueCar says the Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 14.5 million.

The forecast shows the following:

    • For March 2012, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,416,703 units, up 13.7 percent from March 2011 and up 23.3 percent from February 2012 (on an unadjusted basis)

    • The March 2012 forecast translates into a SAAR of 14.5 million new car sales, up from 13.1 million in March 2011 and down from 15.1 million in February 2012

    • Retail sales are up 14.3 percent compared to March 2011 and up 26.5 percent from February 2012

    • Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 19.5 percent of total industry sales in March 2012

    •The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,440 in March 2012, which represents a decrease of 1.5 percent from February 2012 and decrease of 1.7 percent from March 2011

    • Used car sales are estimated to be 2,736,250, up 9.5 percent from March 2011 and up 28.7 percent from February 2012.  The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:2 for March 2012

"We are looking at a record breaking month for many manufacturers in March with Hyundai, Nissan and Volkswagen expected to have their highest unit sales ever in the U.S.," said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Market Intelligence for TrueCar.com.

"We also forecast that Chrysler, Ford, GM, Honda and Toyota will have an extremely strong month, with some of the highest unit sales in years. Due to stronger than expected recovery, we've increased our sales forecast another 3.6 percent, from 14.0 million unit sales to 14.5 million unit sales in 2012."

"Consumers who wanted a new vehicle, but were cautiously sitting on the sidelines, are entering the market and feeling more confident about buying," said Kristen Andersson, Senior Analyst at TrueCar.com. "Automakers have hit the sweet spot this month with lowered incentives and double digit sales increases, which signifies the underlying strength in consumer demand."

Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for March 2012

Manufacturer

March 2012 Forecast

% Change vs. February 2012

% Change vs. March 2011

Chrysler

160,256

19.3%

31.2%

Ford

215,182

20.5%

1.4%

GM

249,887

19.4%

20.9%

Honda

145,594

32.2%

8.9%

Hyundai/Kia

126,351

31.4%

19.1%

Nissan

129,188

21.0%

6.6%

Toyota

195,298

22.5%

10.8%

Volkswagen

49,225

25.9%

33.1%

Industry

1,416,703

23.3%

13.7%

 

Market Share

Manufacturer

March 2012 Forecast

February 2012

March 2011

Chrysler

11.3%

11.7%

9.8%

Ford

15.2%

15.5%

17.0%

GM

17.6%

18.2%

16.6%

Honda

10.3%

9.6%

10.7%

Hyundai/Kia

8.9%

8.4%

8.5%

Nissan

9.1%

9.3%

9.7%

Toyota

13.8%

13.9%

14.1%

Volkswagen

3.5%

3.4%

3.0%

 

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer

March 2012 Incentives

% Change vs. February 2012

% Change vs. March 2011

Total Spending

Chrysler

$3,137

-1.8%

5.6%

$499,729,046

Ford

$2,726

-3.8%

-2.8%

$586,669,519

GM

$3,144

0.9%

-5.1%

$785,765,563

Honda

$2,122

-0.2%

-8.1%

$308,945,849

Hyundai/Kia

$882

4.8%

-30.6%

$111,379,756

Nissan

$3,115

-3.7%

28.0%

$402,433,212

Toyota

$1,704

5.2%

-13.5%

$332,828,376

Volkswagen

$2,021

-2.7%

4.5%

$99,486,066

Industry

$2,440

-1.5%

-1.7%

$3,456,880,192