TrueCar predicts best November sales since 2003
(November 27, 2013) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com, the negotiation-free car buying platform, today released its November 2013 sales and incentives forecast predicting the best November sales in 10 years. TrueCar says new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) are expected to be 1,211,120 units, up 6.3 percent from November 2012 and up 0.8 percent from October 2013.
The November 2013 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 15.8 million new car sales, up 4.3 percent from October 2013 and up 2.2 percent over November 2012. Retail sales are up 1 percent compared to November 2012 and up .3 percent from October 2013.
Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 16.1 percent of total industry sales in November 2013.
The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,507 in November 2013, which represents an increase of 0.7 percent from November 2012 but a decrease of -2.1 percent from October 2013. Incentives are at their lowest levels since January 2013.
Used car sales are estimated to be 3,000,508. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1.2:3 for November 2013.
“Dealerships across the country continued to experience robust sales numbers in November, fueled by attractive discounts on the outgoing 2013 model year vehicles as well as several new, compelling 2014 model year introductions,” said Jesse Toprak, senior analyst for TrueCar.com. “We are on track to reach nearly 15.7 million new vehicles sold in 2013, followed by our forecast of 16.5 million units in 2014.”
"Overall incentive spending hit its lowest level since January," said Kristen Andersson, analyst at TrueCar.com. "Chrysler’s incentive spending dips to its lowest level since January 2003 as their strong product lineup is driving a double-digit sales increase this month."
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for November 2013:
Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | November 2013 Forecast |
% Change vs. October 2013 |
% Change vs. November 2012 |
| Chrysler | 140,753 | 1.4% | 15.5% |
| Ford | 181,338 | -3.4% | 4.5% |
| GM | 218,451 | -3.5% | 17.1% |
| Honda | 119,848 | 4.6% | 2.8% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 94,168 | 0.9% | -0.4% |
| Nissan | 99,026 | 8.8% | 2.9% |
| Toyota | 171,426 | 1.4% | 6.0% |
| Volkswagen Group | 45,670 | 2.2% | -13.3% |
| Industry | 1,211,120 | 0.8% | 6.3% |
Market Share
| Manufacturer | November 2013 Forecast | Oct-13 | Nov-12 |
| Chrysler | 11.6% | 11.5% | 10.7% |
| Ford | 15.0% | 15.6% | 15.2% |
| GM | 18.0% | 18.8% | 16.4% |
| Honda | 9.9% | 9.5% | 10.2% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% |
| Nissan | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.4% |
| Toyota | 14.2% | 14.1% | 14.2% |
| Volkswagen Group | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% |
Incentive Spending
| Manufacturer | Nov. 2013 Incentives |
% Change vs. Oct. 2013 | % Change vs. Nov. 2012 | Total Spending |
| Chrysler | $2,756 | -6.0% | -12.3% | $ 387,931,695 |
| Ford | $3,317 | -0.4% | 23.4% | $ 601,517,128 |
| GM | $3,067 | -9.9% | 8.4% | $ 669,925,572 |
| Honda | $1,724 | 10.0% | -18.6% | $ 206,676,264 |
| Hyundai/Kia | $1,858 | -1.1% | 25.9% | $ 174,942,826 |
| Nissan | $2,554 | 18.7% | -10.7% | $ 252,935,168 |
| Toyota | $1,876 | 1.6% | 3.7% | $ 321,644,972 |
| Volkswagen Group | $2,332 | 1.2% | 8.8% | $ 97,451,322 |
| Industry | $2,507 | -2.1% | 0.7% | $ 3,032,220,588 |
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