TrueCar offers optimistic forecast of April new-car sales

(April 26, 2013) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com today released its April 2013 sales and incentives forecast.  The forecast shows that for April, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,305,901 units, up 10.7 percent from April.

Other highlights of TrueCar's forecast:

    • The April forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate ("SAAR") of 15.2 million new car
sales, flat from March 2013 and up from 14.1 million in April 2012.

    • Retail sales are up 4.2 percent compared to April 2012 and up 20.2 percent from March 2013.

    • Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 21.7 percent of total industry sales in April 2013.

    • The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,466 in April 2013, which represents an increase of 0.9 percent from April 2012 and is down 5.3 percent from March 2013.

    • Used car sales are estimated to be 2,944,141.  The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:2 for April 2013.

"New car sales continued their stable year-over-year growth curve in April, with improved consumer demand propelling the sales rate above 15 million units for the sixth month in a row," said Jesse Toprak, senior analyst for TrueCar.com. "Relatively lower gas prices coupled with small business demand improving for trucks resulted in a strong showing for small and large pickups in April, a trend we expect to see strengthen even further for the rest of 2013."

Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for April 2013:

 

Unit Sales

Manufacturer

April 2013 Forecast

% Change vs. March 2013

% Change vs. April 2012

Chrysler

157,119

-8.2%

11.7%

Ford

207,568

-10.2%

17.2%

GM

235,164

-4.4%

10.2%

Honda

129,068

-5.1%

5.8%

Hyundai/Kia

103,249

-12.1%

-6.0%

Nissan

101,558

-26.3%

42.4%

Toyota

188,908

-8.0%

6.1%

Volkswagen Group

49,671

-8.8%

-5.4%

Industry

1,305,901

-9.8%

10.7%

 

 

Market Share

Manufacturer

April 2013 Forecast

March 2013

April 2012

Chrysler

12.0%

11.8%

11.9%

Ford

15.9%

16.0%

15.0%

GM

18.0%

17.0%

18.1%

Honda

9.9%

9.4%

10.3%

Hyundai/Kia

7.9%

8.1%

9.3%

Nissan

7.8%

9.5%

6.0%

Toyota

14.5%

14.2%

15.1%

Volkswagen Group

3.8%

3.8%

4.5%

 

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer

April 2013 Incentives

% Change vs. March 2013

% Change vs. April 2012

Total Spending

Chrysler

$3,209

-3.4%

-1.1%

$     504,167,642

Ford

$2,690

-9.8%

9.2%

$     558,274,214

GM

$3,390

-8.3%

7.1%

$     797,148,439

Honda

$1,724

9.9%

-30.7%

$     222,475,168

Hyundai/Kia

$1,424

5.4%

12.8%

$     147,076,304

Nissan

$2,555

-10.4%

4.8%

$     259,442,461

Toyota

$1,465

-8.8%

-13.7%

$     276,778,634

Volkswagen Group

$2,573

-3.7%

2.6%

$     127,818,956

Industry

$2,466

-5.3%

0.9%

$ 3,220,527,279