'Rising tide' of buying conditions bolsters February sales
(February 27, 2012) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — The automotive industry continues to move along at a brisk pace, with an estimated 1,095,059 new cars sold in February, forecasts Edmunds.com. This would result in a projected Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 14.4 million units and would be a 19.9 percent increase over January 2012 and a 5.9 percent increase over February 2011.
"There's a rising tide of excellent buying conditions right now that is really driving auto sales momentum," said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell."Between surprisingly strong sales over Presidents Day weekend, optimistic economic news, and unseasonably mild weather conditions across the country, things seem to be breaking the right way for both car buyers and dealers."
Edmunds.com also continues to find evidence that the release of pent-up demand is having a direct impact on the auto sales recovery. With the exception of the Cash for Clunkers period in 2009, the average age of trade-in vehicles in January and February (6.1 and 6.2 years old, respectively) is the oldest on record, suggesting that consumers who were holding out through the recession are finally finding reasons to return to the automotive market.
| Sales Volume | Feb-12 Forecast | Feb-11 | Jan-12 | Change from Feb 2011 | Change from Feb 2011 (adjusted)* | Change from Jan 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 196,742 | 207,030 | 167,962 | -5.0% | -8.8% | 17.1% |
| Ford | 184,812 | 156,238 | 136,293 | 18.3% | 13.6% | 35.6% |
| Toyota | 149,780 | 141,846 | 124,540 | 5.6% | 1.4% | 20.3% |
| Chrysler | 125,990 | 95,102 | 101,150 | 32.5% | 27.2% | 24.6% |
| Honda | 103,183 | 98,059 | 83,009 | 5.2% | 1.0% | 24.3% |
| Nissan | 97,971 | 92,370 | 79,313 | 6.1% | 1.8% | 23.5% |
| Industry | 1,095,059 | 993,009 | 912,954 | 10.3% | 5.9% | 19.9% |
*NOTE: February 2012 had 25 sales days; February 2011 had 24
Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 11.3 million vehicles in February, with fleet transactions accounting for 21 percent of total sales.
Of the Big 6 automakers, only General Motors is expected to show a year-over-year sales decrease this month. Edmunds.com predicts that GM sales will fall 8.8 percent year over year, despite a 17.1 percent gain over January of this year.
GM will also suffer the biggest hit to year-over-year market share of the major automakers, dropping almost three percentage points from February of last year. GM's year-over-year decline is a direct result of its aggressive incentives push that pumped up sales in early-2011.
GM's domestic counterparts, however, are expected to make the biggest year-over-year gains in February. Chrysler and Ford sales will climb 27.2 percent and 13.6 percent, respectively, in February. The two Detroit automakers are the only Big 6 manufacturers whose sales growth is expected to outpace the industry average.
| Market Share | Feb-12 Forecast | Feb-11 | Jan-12 | Change from Feb 2011 | Change from Jan 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 18.0% | 20.8% | 18.4% | -2.9% | -0.4% |
| Ford | 16.9% | 15.7% | 14.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
| Toyota | 13.7% | 14.3% | 13.6% | -0.6% | 0.0% |
| Chrysler | 11.5% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Honda | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.1% | -0.5% | 0.3% |
| Nissan | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.7% | -0.4% | 0.3% |
Japan's Big 3 automakers, meanwhile, are continuing their slow march back to pre-earthquake levels. Edmunds.com projects that February will be the second month in a row that all three major Japanese brands will report year-over-year sales gains, an event that has not been seen since prior to the supply shortages that arose last spring.
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