New and used monthly car payments expected to shatter records in 4Q


Edmunds.com

(January 5, 2022) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Consumers are spending more than ever to finance new and used vehicle purchases as inventory shortages continue and consumer demand runs high. According to the car shopping experts at Edmunds, in Q4 2021 the average monthly payment for new vehicles is expected to climb to $636, the highest level that Edmunds has on record, compared to $614 in third quarter 2021 and $581 in fourth quarter 2020.


Edmunds data also reveals that the average monthly payment for used vehicles is expected to break a record, climbing to $520, compared to $500 in third quarter 2021 and $437 in fourth quarter 2020.

Edmunds analysts say that the increase in average monthly payments is likely due to an influx of luxury shoppers moving away from leasing toward financing new vehicle purchases: Edmunds data reveals that new vehicle lease penetration fell to 23% in December, down from 31% in December 2019. Edmunds data also shows that dealer financing increased across the board for luxury brands year over year.

For example, in fourth quarter 2021, dealer-financed purchases made up 46% of Audi sales compared to 34% in fourth quarter 2020, and Lexus dealer-financed purchases made up 45% in fourth quarter 2021 compared to 26% in fourth quarter 2020.

"Leasing and luxury historically have gone hand in hand, but that trend is drifting away as automakers have less reason to incentivize leasing amid inventory shortages," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' executive director of insights. "Affluent luxury shoppers are likely feeling comfortable with financing their pricey purchases instead since interest rates are so low."

Edmunds analysts note that lower annual percentage rate (APR) offers are one bright spot for car shoppers who might feel daunted by fewer discounts and higher prices in the current market.

"If you're looking to finance your next car purchase, know that interest rates are on your side," said Ivan Drury, Edmunds' senior manager of insights. "Make sure to shop around for your auto loan the same way you'd shop around for your vehicle. Automakers and dealers will do what they can to keep customers in their F&I department, which offers a bit more room for negotiation for shoppers in this seller's market.

"It doesn't hurt to ask if a dealership would be willing to beat the rate you've been approved for elsewhere. Some dealers might also be willing to offer a longer loan term at a comparable or marginally higher interest rate."