By Christopher A. Sawyer
The Virtual Driver

(January 28, 2014) Lincoln had three choices regarding the Navigator for 2015: 1) Kill it, 2) Replace it, 3) Refresh it. It chose the latter. The reason is simple. With the new Mustang and F-150 about to launch, Ford’s new product plate is full. Initiating a program to replace its full-size SUVs would have stretched its product development team to the breaking point, and drawn down its bank account.

However, there’s another reason Ford chose to refresh. Executives haven’t decided which way to go with its mainstream SUVs, much less a low-volume vehicle like the Navigator. It hasn’t set the luxury SUV market on fire, aided by the fact that Lincoln has followed a process of benign neglect while it tries to figure out what to do with the brand.

With many executives looking to China as Ford’s future, the temptation exists to design vehicles that sell well there, and adapt them to other markets. Call it the “safe bet” strategy. The Navigator means nothing; it has no image. The safe bet strategy would suggest Ford will kill off the Navigator, saturating the Chinese market with the MKX and MKC SUVs.

What happens to the Navigator (and Expedition) may depend on what Ford does with the next-generation Explorer. There are a number of possibilities. It could continue on with its aging Volvo XC90-derived structure, be ported over to a new steel structure (with lots of advanced, high-strength steels), or be the next vehicle in Ford’s fleet to swap to aluminum.

The first option goes against CEO Alan Mulally’s edict that Ford must rid itself of all vestiges of Mazda- and Volvo-based structures, and develop architectures that are uniquely Ford. That could be done with an advanced steel structure, but Mulally is fully supportive of the move to aluminum. The company has started down this road, it will continue, and — in order to keep hammering away at material and other costs associated with the alloy by upping volume — it’s necessary to move high-volume, high-profit vehicles like the Explorer to an aluminum architecture.

The logic of this “risk takers” strategy, and the reticence of some within Ford’s executive ranks to continue along this path is, some sources suggest, a big reason Mulally decided to stay in the top job. He wants to see Ford continue moving forward along this path. Doing so would open the door to stretching and widening an alloy Explorer to accommodate a smaller, lighter Navigator-like vehicle, and create a platform for replacing two more troubled vehicles, the Ford Flex and Lincoln MKT.

Another Mulally edict is that specialty vehicles like the Ford Expedition and Lincoln Navigator SUVs can no longer be built on unique architectures. There is little carryover between the chassis and body structures of the current (steel) F-150 and Expedition and Navigator. With the heavy lifting having already been done for Ford’s highest-volume vehicle, pulling an Expedition and Navigator off this platform is both relatively easy and cost-effective.

It would give Navigator a unique selling proposition against Cadillac’s new Escalade, and the Expedition against the Chevy Tahoe and Suburban. Plus, these vehicles could be used to develop the hybrid drive architecture planned for future iterations of the F-150 on a relatively low-volume basis, while polishing the “green” credentials of the Ford and Lincoln brands.

The 370 hp/430 lb-ft 3.5-liter EcoBoost V6 — the only powertrain option offered on the 2015 Navigator — would then become the performance offering, with the new 2.7-liter EcoBoost V6 available in both hybrid and non-hybrid versions.

This is the path, I believe, Ford ultimately will choose. It replaces the Expedition and Navigator cost-effectively, expands the work done on the aluminum F-150 logically, and doesn’t worry shareholders that the company is biting off more cost and work than it can chew. It also leaves resources available to handle any problems that arise with the launch of the 2015 F-150, steals a march on the competition, and keeps Ford alive in these segments with vehicles that will not need major revisions as fuel economy standards tighten.

In addition, Ford would be able to focus its engineering and financial resources on an aluminum Explorer that also opens the door to a midsize, seven-passenger Lincoln SUV that either sits alongside or replaces the MKT.

The Virtual Driver