(July 27, 2017) IRVINE, Calif. — New-vehicle sales are expected to fall nearly 6 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.43 million units in July, resulting in an estimated 16.7 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book.

"The annual selling pace is expected to remain below 17 million SAAR in July with volume dipping slightly from the levels seen in May and June 2017," said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book.

"We're in the midst of the steady summer sales months when new vehicles tend to stay relatively consistent after peaking during the Memorial Day weekend in May. Kelley Blue Book expects to see sales start to jump back up again in August and September thanks to model-year closeouts and the Labor Day holiday."

July would represent the fifth month in a row under 17 million SAAR, the longest period since a six-month streak from September 2014 through February 2015. After a record year of sales in 2016 and seven consecutive year-over-year sales increases, Kelley Blue Book's forecast for 2017 calls for sales in the range of 16.8 million to 17.3 million units, which represents a 1 to 4 percent decrease from last year.

Key highlights for estimated July sales forecast

New light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,430,000 units, down 5.7 percent compared to July 2016 and down 2.6 percent from June 2017.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for July is estimated to be 16.7 million, up from 16.4 million in June 2017 and down from 17.8 million in July 2016.

Retail sales are expected to account for 84.1 percent of volume in July 2017, slightly up from 83.8 percent in July 2016.



General Motors could see the most significant drop in market share in July, as the company focuses on lowering production to combat rising levels of inventory. While incentive spending will likely remain elevated for GM brands, the production cuts should help to curb the increased incentives needed to move the slower-selling models that have grown in supply.

Subaru is expected to buck the trend as the only major automaker expected to post a rise in overall sales volume in July. Due to one less selling day this year versus July 2016, Kelley Blue Book projects most automakers will likely see overall volume decline. Subaru, however, will likely enjoy a modest gain in market share due to the popularity of fast-selling models, such as the Crosstrek, Outback and Impreza.



Remaining on trend with previous months, compact SUVs are expected to stay atop the pack and will continue to gain market share. Led by the Toyota RAV4, Nissan Rogue and Honda CR-V, this segment remains highly desirable even as similarly priced mid-size cars continue to bleed market share consistently. The affordable price of entry, modest fuel consumption and considerable utility of compact SUVs has established these vehicles as a top choice for small families and commuters alike.

Similarly, Kelley Blue Book expects full-size trucks will likely post the smallest volume decline of the major segments thanks to strong demand from consumers and small businesses.

"New home construction, and the real estate market in general, has been steadily improving and has even surpassed pre-recession levels in some parts of the country," said Fleming. "A strong real estate market, especially with regard to new home construction, in conjunction with low fuel prices, generous incentives and improved product offerings will help to keep truck sales strong."