(February 23, 2012) IRVINE, Calif. — Kelley Blue Book projects new-vehicle sales to surpass 1,050,000 units and reach a 13.8 million seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for February 2012, improving 6.4 percent from this time last year.

February sales will be aided by increased inventory levels, improved access to credit, attractive finance offers available to consumers and one additional selling day due to the leap year. New-vehicle sales have remained above 13.6 million SAAR since November 2011; however, Kelley Blue Book believes the annualized sales pace will slow after April, as pent-up demand is satisfied from Toyota and Honda's inventory shortfalls.

"From a pure volume perspective, in the months ahead sales will continue to exceed last year's figures, but this year there may be more volatility from month-to-month than in 2011," said Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst of automotive insights for Kelley Blue Book.

"Sales were remarkably flat from May through November 2011, due to the production woes faced by Toyota and Honda. Now that they are producing vehicles at full capacity, a return to traditional seasonal patterns is likely through 2012."

Consumers shopping in February and March will find an improved selection of vehicles available as a result of increased production in January. Manufacturers ramped up production in anticipation of President's Day sales promotions and the onset of the spring selling season beginning in March. As of Feb.1, there were nearly 2.5 million vehicles available for sale on dealer lots; equivalent to a 66 days' supply of vehicles overall.

This is a significant improvement from the 52 days' supply of vehicles available as of Jan. 1. The most significant inventory gains came from General Motors, Ford and Chrysler, each with greater than 80 days' supply of vehicles available for consumers. This compares to a more than 50 days' supply for Toyota, Honda and Nissan, while Hyundai and Kia only have a 30 days' supply of vehicles overall.

In the next month, car shoppers will be able to negotiate the best savings by focusing on domestic vehicles, given the abundant supply currently available for sale. According to Autodata, domestic manufacturers spent more than $1,000 per unit more on incentives in January compared to their Japanese and Korean counterparts, a trend that will continue in February.

Kelley Blue Book expects Chrysler to post another strong performance in February; however, the pace of improvement should slow in the months ahead. In addition, with the exception of General Motors, Kelley Blue Book projects all automotive manufacturers to post year-over-year sales gains in February.
 
General Motors continues to report declines due to a sharp reduction in incentive spending, down 16 percent in January according to Autodata, as well as increased competition from aggressive new redesigns. General Motors has several new introductions that should help boost sales later in the year, including the redesigned 2013 Chevrolet Malibu and all-new Cadillac ATS and XTS.

"The Chrysler 200 didn't sell in significant volume until March 2011, so Chrysler's growth should level off beginning next month," said Gutierrez. "Later in the year, Chrysler should experience another boost with the launch of the all-new Dodge Dart, a much-needed entrant into the already competitive compact segment. Strong sales are expected in the compact and subcompact categories, especially as fuel prices continue to rise."

In terms of year-over-year growth, Kelley Blue Book projects subcompacts to lead all other segments, especially with fuel prices surpassing $3.50 per gallon, nationally.

"Although traditionally viewed as a budget segment reserved for those consumers willing to accept fewer amenities, cheaper materials and less than an awe-inspring driving experience, today's subcompacts compare favorably to many compacts or mid-size sedans," said Gutierrez.

"The Nissan Versa, Chevrolet Sonic, Ford Fiesta, Hyundai Accent, Honda Fit and Toyota Yaris all are excellent examples of either all-new or redesigned products that many consumers would be happy to call their own. Each of these vehicles offers 40 mpg or more on the highway and would make an excellent choice for anyone looking to save a few bucks at the pump."

The mid-size category was a strong performer in January, and Kelley Blue Book anticipates February will be another solid month for the Camry-led segment. The Toyota Camry topped sales gains in January on the strength of its 2012 redesign. This is a segment to watch in 2012, especially with redesigns coming later in the year for the Honda Accord, Ford Fusion, Nissan Altima and Chevrolet Malibu.