(July 29, 2021) New-vehicle retail sales for the month of July are expected to grow from July 2020 but decline from July 2019, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. Retail sales of new vehicles this month are expected to reach 1,187,300 units, a 3.7% increase compared with July 2020, but an 8.7% decrease compared with July 2019 when adjusted for selling days.
           
July 2021 has one more selling day than July 2020 and two more selling days than July 2019. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 7.7% over 2020 and a decrease of 1.4% from 2019.

Total new-vehicle sales for July 2021, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,319,300 units, a 2.7% increase from July 2020 but a 12.4% decrease from July 2019 due to the decline of less-profitable non-retail/fleet sales.

Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 6.7% from 2020 but a decrease of 5.3% from 2019. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.0 million units, up 0.4 million units from 2020 but down 1.9 million units from 2019.

“Inventory constraints, and its divergent effects on vehicle sales, continues to be the key theme for July. Too few vehicles in inventory mean the sales pace in July is well below the levels seen earlier this year. Conversely, the lack of inventory is driving the price of the vehicles to record highs as manufacturers and retailers continue to dial back discounts," said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power.

"While the quantity of sales is down, the quality of each sale is up, evidenced by the fact that consumers will spend more money buying new vehicles than ever before in the month of July, and dealer profits from selling new vehicles will reach an all-time high.”