Japanese natural disasters not changing car-shopping behavior yet

(March 23, 2011) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Edmunds.com reports that American car buyers are showing no change in their shopping behaviors, despite reports of production problems following the earthquake and tsunamis that devastated Japan two weeks ago. The findings indicate that consumers are not showing signs of fears of upcoming price hikes and supply shortages within the auto industry.

Edmunds says an estimated 39 percent of all visitors to the site researched at least one Japanese vehicle during the week ending March 20th. The figure was virtually flat compared to shopper consideration rates prior to the earthquake. The new data may not come as a shock to many industry analysts. A poll posted on Edmunds’ AutoObserver.com found that 68 percent of respondents anticipated no change in consideration for Japanese cars in the wake of the disasters.

“Our shopping data are telling us that not even this devastating earthquake was able to shake consumer confidence in Japanese cars,”
said analyst Ivan Drury. “In fact, the natural disasters may actually strengthen the determination of consumers to remain loyal to their Japanese brands.”

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Japanese car brands already enjoy a high level of loyalty among their American consumers. So far in 2011, 75 percent of Japanese trade-ins in the U.S. were swapped for another Japanese car. The level compares favorably to American (72 percent) and European (46 percent) brand retentions.

Since the earthquake, consideration for Toyota, Japan’s number one automaker, has actually moved up a tick to above 19 percent  — compared to about 18 percent in the two weeks before the earthquake – while all other Japanese brands have each remained flat. The natural disasters have had hardly the negative effects that Toyota endured during its flap with unintended acceleration issues last year, when consideration for the brand tapered off almost four percentage points.

Meanwhile, concern over increased Prius demand in reaction to speculative supply shortages and price hikes appear unsubstantiated, at least for now. While the popular hybrid, which is produced exclusively in Japan, has enjoyed a disproportionate surge in consideration since the beginning of the year, those levels have flattened in step with gas prices during the last week

“Production issues are certainly a concern for automakers right now, but consumers aren’t thinking about that yet,” said Drury. “Consumers are most influenced by factors that impact them directly, like safety issues and gas prices. Until there’s a tangible effect on the buying experience, we’re not likely to see any changes in shopping behavior.”