January auto sales suggest good times will keep rolling

(January 27, 2013) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Edmunds.com forecasts that 1,045,587 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in January for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.3 million light vehicles. The projected sales will be a 22.8 percent decrease from December but a 14.5 percent increase from January 2012.

"January's numbers show that vehicle sales stayed strong, even after the holiday ads faded away and the replacement sales following Hurricane Sandy started to dry up," says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "These results certainly reinforce the exuberance and optimism that filled the air last week at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales Volume December 2012 Forecast December 2011 November 2012 Change from December 2011 Change from November 2012
GM 237,799 234,351 186,505 1.5% 27.5%
Ford 212,898 209,447 177,092 1.6% 20.2%
Toyota 201,502 178,131 161,695 13.1% 24.6%
Chrysler Group 148,085 138,021 122,565 7.3% 20.8%
Honda 133,621 105,230 116,580 27.0% 14.6%
Nissan 99,769 100,927 96,197 -1.1% 3.7%
Industry 1,361,899 1,242,971 1,143,207 9.6% 19.1%

*NOTE: January 2013 had 25 selling days, January 2012 had 24 and December 2012 had 26.

Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 12.4 million vehicles in January, with fleet transactions accounting for 19.0 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.21 million used cars will be sold in January, for a SAAR of 40.2 million (compared to 2.70 million — or a SAAR of 39.5 million — used car sales in December).

In terms of market share, most of the Big Six automakers should expect to be in a better place than they were just a year ago.

The only exception is Nissan, whose January share is expected to drop 0.8 percentage points year over year. But it's not all gloom and doom for Nissan: its share is projected to improve 0.6 points over December. Meanwhile, its fellow Japanese competitors Honda and Toyota are expected to see their shares slide 0.5 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, this month.


MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales Volume Jan-13 Forecast Jan-12 Dec-12 Change from Jan 2012* Change from Dec 2012*
GM 195,262 167,962 245,733 16.3% -20.5%
Ford 164,317 136,293 212,902 20.6% -22.8%
Toyota 147,008 124,540 194,143 18.0% -24.3%
Chrysler Group 121,366 101,150 152,367 20.0% -20.3%
Honda 97,416 83,009 132,774 17.4% -26.6%
Nissan 82,235 79,313 99,290 3.7% -17.2%
Industry 1,045,587 912,954 1,355,218 14.5% -22.8%