(January 6, 2012) DETROIT — Despite continued heavy investment by auto makers in electric propulsion technologies, global automotive executives don't expect e-car sales to exceed 15 percent of annual global auto sales before 2025, according to the 13th annual global automotive survey conducted by U.S. audit, tax, and advisory firm KPMG.

In polling 200 C-level executives in the global automotive industry, KPMG found that 65 percent of executives don't expect electrified vehicles — meaning all e-vehicles, from full hybrids to FCEVs — to exceed 15 percent of global annual auto sales before 2025.  Executives in the U.S. and Western Europe expect even less adoption, projecting e-vehicles will only account for 6-10 percent of global annual auto sales.

"Electric vehicles are still in their infancy, and while we've seen some recent model introductions, consumer demand has so far been modest," said Gary Silberg, National Automotive Industry leader for KPMG LLP. "While we can expect no more than modest demand in the foreseeable future, we can also expect OEMs to intensify investment, fully appreciating what is at stake in a very competitive industry."

Despite the relatively modest sales projections for electric vehicles over the next 15 years, automotive executives in the KPMG survey indicate that a wide range of electric technologies will be an increased focus of their investment matrix.  In fact, over the next two years:

    • 83 percent say automakers will increase investment in e-motor production,
    • 81 percent say investment in battery (pack/cell) technology will rise,
    • 76 percent expect increased investment in power electronics for e-cars, and,
    • 65 percent predict increased investment in fuel cell (hydrogen) technology.

Additionally, executives expect that hybrid fuel systems, battery electric power and fuel cell electric power will be the alternative propulsion technologies to attract the most auto industry investment over the next five years.

"What's interesting is that automakers are placing bets across the board, and large bets at that, because no one knows which technology will ultimately win the day with consumers," added Silberg.

When asked to name the electrified propulsion technology that will attract the most consumer demand until 2025, auto executives were as mixed as their projected investments. In fact, the variation in response rates between fuel cell electric vehicles (20 percent), battery electrified vehicles (16 percent), full hybrids (22 percent), plug-in hybrids (21 percent), and battery electrified vehicles with range extender (18 percent) was ever so slight.