GasBuddy finds 20% drop in gasoline demand year-over-year

(April 15, 2020) BOSTON — GasBuddy has released its first quarterly report examining consumer fuel buying trends, finding that March fuel demand in gallons purchased dropped 20% compared to March 2019 as millions of Americans followed stay-at-home orders during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Along with the 20% decline in gallons pumped in March year-over-year, additional declines include a 14% drop in fuel transactions and a 28% drop in total payment volume (TPV).

These drops come at a time when gasoline has never been more affordable due to a combination of the massive global surplus of crude oil and drop in demand.

“The dramatic shift in fuel buying upends the pattern of rising gas prices and demand ahead of the warmer months. This data reflects the depth of the impact to consumer and commercial activity the world is experiencing,” says Sarah McCrary, chief executive officer at GasBuddy. “We continue to serve the community by providing important information on fuel pricing, availability of household necessities, and opportunities for Americans to save money."

Examining month-over-month transactions, gallons purchased dropped 10% from February through March. This is a reversal of the trend in transactions established in the previous two years. In March 2019, gallons purchased increased 20%, while in March 2018 gallons purchased increased by 25%.



Highlights from the report

Weakened Gasoline Demand Disrupts Seasonal Fuel Buying Trends: The first quarter of 2020 saw a 9% drop in gallons pumped, a 6.6% drop in monthly fuel transactions and a 21% drop in monthly total payment volume from January through March. February through March saw the most significant drops, with monthly fuel transactions decreasing 6.5%, gallons purchased decreasing 10% and monthly TPV decreasing 18.2% from the prior month, largely due to the stay-at-home orders enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic.

This trend is significantly different from the previous year, where monthly fuel transactions from February to March of 2019 increased 17.6%, gallons purchased increased 20% and monthly TPV increased 32.2%.

Twenty Eight Percent of Americans Overpaid for Gas: Due to the drastic movements in gas prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, 28% of Americans found themselves “overpaying” for gas by paying more than the average price for their gasoline purchase in Q1. The states with the highest number of transactions that paid more than the average price include Ohio (32.6%), Arizona (32%), North Carolina (30.8%), Indiana (30.7%) and Michigan (30.6%).

Half of the top 10 states where most drivers overpaid for gas are located in the Great Lakes region, where high levels of competition between gas stations pushed more frequent changes in prices, leading to a higher chance of overpaying.

Gas Station Brand Loyalty Decreases 3% Year-Over-Year: Gas station brand loyalty decreased 3% from Q1 2019 to Q1 2020, with 55% of consumers transacting at more than one gas station brand per month in 2020 compared to 58% in Q1 2019. Focusing on the “super pumper” drivers who filled up more than once per week or four times per month, more than half (56%) filled up at 2-3 different brands.

Americans Paid Nearly $28 Per Transaction: The average cost of a fuel transaction in Q1 2020 was $27.53. The state with the highest average fuel bill was Alaska at $40 per tank followed by California at $34.50 per tank. The state that paid the least for their fill-ups was Oklahoma at $25.40 per tank. Even though gas prices dropped from February through March to $1.97 per gallon, the average cost for gasoline increased 7 cents per fill-up from Q1 of 2019, when the national average price was $2.38 per gallon.