February 2013 new car sales expected to be up six percent

(February 25, 2013) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com today released its February 2013 sales and incentives forecast predicating that new-car sales will be up six percent over February 2012. And the February SAAR will be 15.7 million, the highest SAAR since 2007. 

The forecast shows the following:

    • For February 2013, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,214,194 units, up 5.7 percent from February 2012 and up 16.5 percent from January 2013 (on an unadjusted basis)

    • The February 2013 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate ("SAAR") of 15.7 million new car sales, up from 14.5 million in February 2012 and up from 15.3 million in January 2013

    • Retail sales are up 5.2 percent compared to February 2012 and up 20.6 percent from January 2013

    • Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 21 percent of total industry sales in February 2013

    • The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,392 in February 2013, which represents a decrease of 3.9 percent from February 2012 and an increase of 1.8 percent from January 2013

    • Used car sales* are estimated to be 3,402,345, up from 3.25 million February 2012. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:3 for February 2013

"The unusual strength of the full size truck segment in February helped industry sales to nearly reach the 15.7 million SAAR mark, despite gas prices increasing," said Jesse Toprak, senior analyst for TrueCar.com. "Pent up demand for pick up trucks by small businesses will be a critical factor in this year's continued sales recovery."

Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for February 2013:

Unit Sales

Manufacturer

February 2013 Forecast

% Change vs. January

2012

% Change vs. February

2012

Chrysler

145,665

23.7%

9.1%

Ford

199,843

20.5%

11.9%

GM

221,019

13.5%

5.6%

Honda

112,708

20.4%

2.3%

Hyundai/Kia

89,578

12.0%

-6.9%

Nissan

101,748

25.7%

-4.7%

Toyota

168,917

7.1%

6.0%

Volkswagen

44,629

14.2%

14.1%

Industry

1,214,194

16.5%

5.7%

 

Market Share

Manufacturer

February 2013 Forecast

January 2013

February 2012

Chrysler

12.0%

11.3%

11.6%

Ford

16.5%

15.9%

15.6%

GM

18.2%

18.7%

18.2%

Honda

9.3%

9.0%

9.6%

Hyundai/Kia

7.4%

7.7%

8.4%

Nissan

8.4%

7.8%

9.3%

Toyota

13.9%

15.1%

13.9%

Volkswagen

3.7%

3.7%

3.4%

 

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer

February

2013

Incentives

% Change vs. January

2013

% Change vs. February

 2012

Total Spending

Chrysler

$3,010

-0.3%

-1.3%

$438,503,123

Ford

$2,711

3.6%

-4.3%

$541,730,520

GM

$3,143

-0.3%

0.9%

$694,566,310

Honda

$1,291

6.3%

-39.3%

$145,529,432

Hyundai/Kia

$1,420

1.9%

18.8%

$127,203,722

Nissan

$2,428

10.5%

-24.9%

$247,013,770

Toyota

$1,681

-1.6%

3.8%

$284,033,376

Volkswagen

$2,326

-2.4%

12.0%

$103,797,746

Industry

$2,392

1.8%

-3.9%

$2,904,112,771


"Automakers enjoyed a month of ideal conditions for profitability in February with incentives down nearly four percent and sales up double digits compared to year ago levels," said Kristen Andersson, analyst for TrueCar.com. "We expect incentives spending to track within a narrow range the rest of the year as the supply of vehicles and consumer demand are forecasted to increase at similar levels."