(March 25, 2011) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — This month's new car sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be approximately 1,242,000 units, a 16.5 percent increase from March 2010 and a 25.1 percent increase from February 2011, according to Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information.

Retail sales are expected to be approximately 987,000 units, up from approximately 786,000 last month.

Edmunds.com analysts predict that March's Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 13.07 million, down from 13.38 in February 2011. SAAR for retail sales are expected to decline from last month to about 10.4 million in March.

"GM seems to have pulled back on incentives in March and could suffer a sales hangover through the next few months, given that the company's earlier offers have been quite generous and may have pulled ahead future sales," said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "Unless GM generates significant month-end activity or Ford runs into constraints with inventory, Ford may overtake GM in monthly sales for only the second time since 1998."

Average automaker incentives in the U.S. are estimated to be $2,321 per vehicle sold in March 2011, down $245, or 9.5 percent, from February 2011, and down $494, or 17.5 percent, from March 2010.

March 2011 had 27 selling days, one more than March 2010. The chart below provides month-over-month comparisons:

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated at 42.8 percent in March 2011, down from 43.6 percent in March 2010 and down from 46.2 percent in February 2011.

Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 210,400 units in March 2011, up 14.5 percent compared to March 2010 and up 34.4 percent from February 2011. This would result in a new car market share of 16.9 percent of new car sales in March 2011 for Ford, down from 17.2 percent in March 2010 but up from 15.8 percent in February 2011.

Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 208,400 units in March 2011, up 10.8 percent compared to March 2010 and up 0.7 percent from February 2011. GM's market share is expected to be 16.8 percent of new vehicle sales in March 2011, down from 17.6 percent in March 2010 and down from 20.8 percent in February 2011.

Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 112,700 units in March 2011, up 21.6 percent compared to March 2010 and up 18.5 percent from February 2011. This would result in a new car market share of 9.1 percent for Chrysler in March 2011, up from 8.7 percent in March 2010 but down from 9.6 percent in February 2011.

Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 135,000 units in March 2011, up 24.7 percent from March 2010 and up 37.7 percent from February 2011. Honda's market share is expected to be 10.9 percent in March 2011, up from 10.2 percent in March 2010 and up from 9.9 percent in February 2011.

Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 117,500 units in March 2011, up 23.1 percent from March 2010 and up 27.2 percent from February 2011. Nissan's market share is expected to be 9.5 percent in March 2011, up from 9.0 percent in March 2010 and up from 9.3 percent in February 2011.

Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 181,100 units in March 2011, down 3.1 percent from March 2010 but up 27.7 percent from February 2011. Toyota's market share is expected to be 14.6 percent in March 2011, down from 17.5 percent in March 2010 but up from 14.3 percent in February 2011.

Read more about the March sales forecast on Edmunds AutoObserver.com.