(April 8, 2011) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — The threat of supply shortages and ensuing price increases in the next few months should motivate car shoppers to buy or lease their next new car now rather than waiting for typical summertime deals, says Edmunds.com.

"Any production disruptions caused by the devastation in Japan have yet to be felt directly, but savvy consumers realize that it makes sense to buy sooner than later," said Jeremy Anwyl, CEO of Edmunds.com.

"Given the situation in Japan, we expect that product shortages could arise for some models beginning in May. This year, it won't make sense for car-shoppers to wait until summer to get the best deals."

In the last decade, July has been the best month for incentive discounts on a new car or truck, according to Edmunds.com's True Cost of Incentives (TCIsm) data. Last year, the average discount in July was 14.1 percent off sticker price, the highest percentage of the year.

But in an uncertain automotive industry in the wake of last month's Japanese earthquake, Edmunds.com analysts say it is realistic to expect summer inventory shortages that will eliminate the need for heavy discounting. Honda, Nissan, Toyota and Mercedes-Benz already appear to have unseasonable drop-offs in inventory, according to inventory data evaluated by Edmunds.com's analysts. Honda is suffering the most: all four of Honda's top-selling models — Accord, Civic, CR-V and Insight — showed steep declines in inventory compared with last month.

For more information on incentives, sales and shopping trends in the automotive industry, visit Edmunds.com's Data Center.