Auto sales to close 2017 on high note, Edmunds predicts

(December 22, 2017) SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Edmunds forecasts that 1,587,640 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in December, for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.7 million. This reflects a 14.0 percent increase in sales from November 2017, but a 5.8 percent decrease from December 2016, which was a record month for the industry.

"Auto sales got off to a sluggish start in 2017 but managed to finish in a fairly decent place," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds executive director of industry analysis.

"Even though December sales were down year over year, we expect it to be the highest volume month of 2017. Shopper traffic to dealerships really picks up once we get on the other side of the Christmas holiday as automakers pull out all the stops to eke out every last sale before the end of the year."

Based on this forecast for December, Edmunds expects to hit its full-year sales forecast of 17.2 million new vehicles in 2017.

"Sales are still strong historically, but 2017 will mark the first down year for the auto industry since 2009. With sales tapering off, we could be in for a high-stakes incentive war in 2018 as automakers and dealers fight for consumers in a smaller and highly saturated market," Caldwell said.

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 14.7 million vehicles in December 2017, with fleet transactions accounting for 16.8 percent of total sales. An estimated 2.7 million used vehicles will be sold in December 2017, for a SAAR of 38.8 million (compared to 2.9 million — or a SAAR of 39.0 million — in November).